关中-天水经济区气候变化特征分析

为正确认识关中-天水经济区气候变化特征,以1960—2014年研究区所辖的七市一区气象站点逐日气温和降水量实测值为基础,综合运用气候倾向率、累积距平法、Morlet小波函数、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法,并结合滑动t检验、Yamamoto分析对其气候变化特征进行诊断分析。研究结果表明:关天经济区近55年来,年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温及降水强度均有上升趋势,年降水量、降水日数呈下降趋势。20世纪90年代是气候变化的转折点,降水量、年平均气温较其它年代增幅明显。降水量存在准6、14、22、32年周期;降水强度存在准6、10、22、27、32年周期,年平均气温存在准28、22年尺度的变化周期。降水要素仅存在弱突变,气温要素呈现相对较强突变。研究区气候整体态势偏向暖湿化趋势发展。

Climate Change Characteristics of Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region

In order to study the climate change characteristics of Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region, based on the daily air temperature and precipitation observation data of this region from seven cities and one district during 1960 to 2014, the climate change characteristics were analyzed by the method of climate tendency rate, accumulative anomalies, Morlet wavelet function, Mann-Kendall nonparametric test method, moving t-test and Yamamoto analysis. The results showed that the annual average temperature, annual mean maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation intensity increased in recent 55 years in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region, the annual precipitation and precipitation days reduced. The 1990s was the turning point of climate change, the increasing rates of precipitation and the annual mean temperature were significantly higher than that of other times. The precipitation amount showed a periodic change trend of 6, 14, 22 and 32 years, the precipitation intensity showed a periodic change trend of 6, 10, 22, 27 and 32 years, and the annual mean temperature showed a periodic change trend of 28 and 22 years. The mutation of precipitation was weak and that of temperature was relatively strong. The warmer and wetter climatic changing was the major trend in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region.