NCEP/NCAR再分析气温在阿克苏河流域的适用性分析

为更好地理解阿克苏河流域气候变化并寻找合理的数据源，以该流域6个气象站点1960-2007年月平均气温为基础，以克里金插值方法为手段，研究NCEP/NCAR再分析气温在该区域的适用性。结果表明：NCEP/NCAR再分析气温与所选取的6个气象站点实际观测值之间具有较好的相关性，最高相关系数达0.845，能够反映本地区的气温年、月和季节变化。但与实测气温相比，再分析气温均比实测气温低。在变化趋势上，NCEP/NCAR再分析气温与实测气温具有较好的一致性；在量上，再分析气温除个别月份普遍低于实测气温，其中，春季偏差较大，以秋季相关性最好。

Analysis on Applicability of NCEP/NCAR in Reanalyzing Temperaturein the Aksu River

In order to properly guide the studies on climate change and find out the reliable data sources, this paper discussed the applicability of NCEP/NCAR in reanalyzing temperature in the Aksu River.The monthly temperature data observed by 6 meteorological stations in the Aksu River Basin during the period from 1960 to 2007 and Kriging method were used. The results revealed that there was a good correlation between the analyzed temperature values with NCEP/NCAR and the observed ones at the meteorological stations, and the maximum correlation coefficient was 0.845. It was found that the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis was able to be used to derive the values of annual, seasonal and monthly temperature in the study area. Compared with the temperature values observed by the meteorological stations, the analyzed values with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis was lower than the observed ones. There was a similar trend of temperature change between the reanalyzed values with NCEP/NCAR and the observed data. Except some months, the reanalyzed values of monthly temperature with NCEP/NCAR were generally lower than the observed data, especially in spring, and there was a good correlation between the analyzed and observed data of temperature in autumn.