基于蓝水资源的新疆农业种植结构调整分析

新疆水资源匮乏,大部分水资源用于农业,调整农作物种植结构,对于减小新疆农业用水量,优化水资源配置具有重要意义。本研究将新疆分为南疆、北疆、东疆和伊犁河谷,利用18个气象站2000-2009年的气象资料,分析三种主要作物(棉花、玉米、小麦)的蓝水蒸散量及蓝水需水量。对四个地区农作物种植结构进行调整,对比分析调整前后蓝水需水量变化。结果表明:1)基于农作物种植总面积不变原则,调整各地区农作物种植结构,全疆农作物蓝水需水量减少近2×108 m3;2)基于水资源总量控制,在"十二五"规划面积基础上调整农作物种植结构,蓝水需水量减少10.56×108 m3,全疆粮食作物玉米和小麦产量均满足规划要求,棉花产量尚需进一步提高。以蓝水蒸散量为工具,合理布局农作物种植结构,适当减小农作物种植面积,可以减少农业用水量,同时减小对农作物产量的影响。

Blue water oriented optimization of plantation industry in Xinjiang

As a water deficient area, Xinjiang is using most of water resource for agriculture. It is important to adjust crop plantation structure and optimize water resource allocation for reducing agricultural water demand. In this paper, Xinjiang was divided into four regions (i.e. South Xinjiang, North Xinjiang, Ili Valley and East Xinjiang) according to their different natural conditions. The blue water evapotranspiration and demand of three main crops (i.e. cotton, maize and wheat) in the four regions were calculated based on the daily weather data of 18 weather stations from 2000 to 2009. The differences of blue water demands were analyzed between the present and after the optimization of plantation industry in the four regions. The results showed that the blue water demand in Xinjiang can be reduced by 2 hundred million cubic meters via the crop plantation structure change if the three crops planting areas and the total crop planting area were kept constant. Based on the amount of water resource and the Twelfth Five-year development plan of the agricultural area, 10.56 hundred million cubic meters of cotton blue water can be saved via the crop plantation structure adjustment, with which the crop yield requirements for the Twelfth Five-year development plan were maintained, except for cotton. Based on the blue water evapotranspiration, the plantation structure optimization and the appropriate plantation area reduction can reduce agricultural water demand and minimize the negative influence on crop yield.