河北省冬小麦生长和产量对气候变化的响应

利用河北省1981-2007年冬小麦产量资料和冬麦区23个农业气象站点冬小麦全生育期观测资料、逐日气象资料,采用最小二乘法、相关分析、通径分析等方法,分析冬小麦生长发育和产量对气候变化的响应。结果表明:冬小麦冬前各生育期、北部麦区起身期、中南部抽穗－开花期平均气温下降,其他发育期平均气温升高;各发育期平均日照时数减少;降水总量冬前增加,冬后减少。冬小麦冬前生育期延后,冬后生育期提前;播种－分蘖期和抽穗－成熟期延长,其他发育期缩短,实际生长天数变化不大。不同生育期内气象要素对冬小麦发育进程和产量影响不同:气温是影响发育进程的主要气象因子,各发育期内均有较大影响;降水对返青后发育进程影响较大;日照主要影响灌浆成熟期。北部麦区气象产量主要受冬前分蘖期、越冬期、起身－拔节期的气温,开花－成熟期的气温和日照,拔节－抽穗期的降水量影响;中南部麦区气象产量主要受全生育期降水量(以返青－抽穗期最为突出)、开花－成熟期的气温和日照影响。

Response of Growth and Yield of Winter Wheat to Climate Change in Hebei Province

In this paper, the response of growth and yield of winter wheat to climate change is analyzed by using the least square method, correlation analysis and path analysis based on the winter wheat yield and climate data observed by 23 agro-meteorological stations in Hebei Province, China during the period 1981-2007. The results show that the average temperature was decreased from seeding period to overwintering period in the north and from tasselling period to florescence in the central and southern parts, but it was increased during other periods. The average sunshine duration during all the growing periods of winter wheat was decreased. Precipitation before overwintering period was increased but decreased after returning-green period. The winter wheat growing periods became later before overwintering period but earlier after returning-green period. The durations from seeding period to tillering period and from tasselling period to mature period became longer, but those of other periods became shorter, so the change of actual growing season was not so significant. The effects of weather factors on the growing period and yield of winter wheat were different: temperature was the main factor affecting growing period, while rainfall affected the growing period mainly after returning-green period, and sunshine duration affected mainly pustulation period and mature period. The climatic yield in the north was mainly affected by the temperature during tillering period, overwintering period and jointing period, by temperature and sunshine duration during the period from florescence to mature period, and by rainfall from jointing period to tasselling period. The climatic yield in the central and southern parts was mainly affected by rainfall during the whole growing period (especially from turning-green period to tasselling period) and mainly by temperature and sunshine duration from florescence to mature period.