近50年来霍林河流域径流量演变规律研究

霍林河是松嫩平原西部地区科尔沁、向海和查干泡湿地的重要补给水源,选取流域内3个代表站的径流实测资料,对50年来流域年径流量、雨季径流量、枯季径流量和基流径流量的演变规律进行分析。径流量年均序列的db3小波函数多分辨率分析表明,期间流域径流量总体呈下降趋势;“距平累积法”将径流量序列分为3个阶段,1965年以前径流量偏多阶段,1965~1985年的偏少阶段和1985年以后的偏多阶段;1985年以后流域径流量较强的增长趋势变化用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法检测达到突变水平,增长突变发生在1985~1990年;Morlet小波分析表明,不同类型径流量主要存在3个尺度的周期变化,预测在未来几年流域将逐渐进入较大尺度的枯水期之下的较小尺度的相对丰水期。

Rules of Runoff Variation of Huolinhe River in the Past 50 Years

Huolinhe River is the most importantwater supply sources for the Xianhai,Kereqin,and Chaganpao wetlands in west of the Songnen Plain.According to the data of three representative hydrologic stations,thevariation rules of the annual runoff,rainfall runoff,dry season runoffand base runoff of the Huolinhe River basin over 50 years were analyzed.With the analysis of year average discharge series in ways of multi-resolution analysis with db3 wavelet function,the results showed a obvious trend of decline of runoff in this period.The stages of the natural runoff variety were divided in 3 periods when a method with accumulateddeviation from average runoffwas used,more than mean runoff before 1965 and after 1985,and less than mean between them.The great increase tendency of runoff after 1985 had arrived the level of abrupt change with the method of Mann-Kendall,and the main abrupt change of increase happenedduring 1985-1990.We apply Morelet Wavelet to the periods analysis of runoff series,and found different kinds of runoff series variedwithin primary three time scales,and forecasting that the Huolinhe basin will gradually go into a dry season of large-scale,but a relative wet one of small-scale in theflowing several years.