| 毛竹枯梢病测报方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 欧兆胜 张文勤. 毛竹枯梢病测报方法研究[J]. 福建林学院学报, 1993, 13(2): 141-146 |
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| 作者姓名： | 欧兆胜 张文勤 |
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| 作者单位： | 尤溪县林业委员会(欧兆胜，张文勤)，尤溪县林业委员会(黄祖清) |
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| 摘 要： | 毛竹枯梢病在林间流行的时间动态属于积年流行病害,遵循罗辑斯蒂模型。依据1988～1991年观察资料,建立毛竹枯梢病的中期(1年)预测方程ln[x_2/(1-x_2)]=194.18677+3.63374T-3.26491U+0.01657R+0.62385ln[x_1/(1-x_1))。模外数据检验证明,该预测式具有较高的可靠性,可供生产使用。
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| 关 键 词： | 毛竹枯梢病 罗辑斯蒂模型 测报方程 |
A Study on the Prediction Method for the Top Blight of Phyllostachys heterocycle |
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| Ou zhaosheng Zhang Wenqin Huang Zuqing. A Study on the Prediction Method for the Top Blight of Phyllostachys heterocycle[J]. Journal of Fujian College of Forestry, 1993, 13(2): 141-146 |
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| Authors: | Ou zhaosheng Zhang Wenqin Huang Zuqing |
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| Affiliation: | Forestry Committee of Youxi County |
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| Abstract: | The temporal dynamic of epidemic of the top blight of P. heteroc-ycla is of the polyetic epidemic disease, which follows a Logistic model. On the basis of the data obtained from observation of the top blight of P, heterocycla,the multivariant linear stepwise regression prediction model was established by means of multivariant statistics, with disease index,pathogens temperature,relative humidity and rainfall as factors,the equation established being:ln[x2/(1-x2)]=194.18677+3.63374T-3.26491U+ 0.01657R+0.62385ln[x1/ (l-x1)]. This prediction equation has proved to be reliable and practicable as well. |
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| Keywords: | top blight P. heterocycla Logistic model prediction equation |
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