隐性自然灾害对中国作物生产的影响及其应对策略

随着对显性自然灾害抵御能力的日益增强，隐性自然灾害已经演变成为影响中国作物大面积持续均衡增产的主要因素。研究隐性自然灾害的成灾机制、区域特征和应对策略，可以为抗灾减灾和高产稳产提供论依据和技术支撑。为此，本文在总结归纳低温、高温、阴雨寡照、阶段性干旱和土壤渍害等隐性自然灾害类型的基础上，明确了不同类型隐性灾害对中国作物生产的主要影响；从作物和区域角度，系统分析了主要隐性自然灾害的成灾原因和发生特征；阐明了气候变化条件下隐性灾害的加重趋势。笔者从农田改造、品种改良、栽培改进等层面着手，提出了全面提升农田生态系统的抗逆性、作物品种的适应性和耕作栽培的缓冲性等应对隐性自然灾害的建议。

The Impacts of Unnoticeable Natural Hazard on Crop Production and the Overcoming Strategies in China

Along with the enhancement of tolerance to apparent natural hazards, nowadays, unnoticeable natural hazard has progressively become the key constrain to crop production with a sustainable and balanced yield gain at a large area scale in China. Understanding the mechanisms, characteristics and overcoming strategies to the unnoticeable natural hazards can provide important theoretical and technological supports to the implement strategies for hazard alleviation. Based on a summary of unnoticeable natural hazard patterns (i.e. heat stress, frost/chilling, cloudy and drizzly weather, periodical drought, and water logging), the impacts of each unnoticeable hazard on crop production was assessed in this article. At both the crop and the regional scales, the main reasons and characteristics of these unnoticeable natural hazards were illustrated. The occurring trend of unnoticeable natural hazards under the background of climate change was analyzed as well. Finally, some measurements (e.g. field condition improvement, new crop variety breeding, cropping technique innovation, etc) were recommended to increase the tolerance of agro-ecosystem, the adaptability of crop varieties, and the buffer capacity of cropping system to the unnoticeable natural hazards, so as to increase crop productivity and ensure food security in China.