黑河莺落峡年径流量时序变化的趋势特性及丰枯演化规律研究

黑河是我国一条重要的内陆河,对黑河流域年径流量的变化特征进行深入研究,具有重要的现实意义。文中应用Kendal趋势检验法、R/S分析法、条件概率分析法和M arkov过程基本的理论,对黑河上游莺落峡水文站1945~2000年实测年径流量时序变化的趋势特性及丰枯演化规律进行了研究。结果表明:莺落峡年径流量变化具有如下主要规律:呈增加趋势,但是并不显著;变化存在正的持续性,预计进入21世纪后将继续呈微弱增加趋势;无论何种长度的连续年数,都是连枯的概率最大、连平的概率次之,连丰的概率最小;径流枯水状态的自保守性最强,平水状态的自保守性次之,丰水状态的自保守性最弱;无论处于何种初始状态,径流向枯水状态转移的概率最大,向平水状态转移的概率次之,向丰水状态转移的概率最小。在径流的长期演化过程中,枯水状态的出现机会占有优势,平水状态和枯水状态的出现机会相同。

Change characteristics of trend and abundant and low state of annual runoff time series at Yingluoxia hydrological station of Heihe River

It has important practical significance to study change characteristics of annual runoff in Heihe River basin for its important status as an inner-land river basin.Such methods as Kendal trend test method,R/S analysis method,conditional probability analysis method and Markov process basic theory were applied to study characteristics of abundant and low state of annual runoff time series from 1945 to 2000 at Yingluoxia hydrological station of Heihe River.The results showed that the changes of annual runoff at Yingluoxia station manifested such main characteristics as following: unremarkable augment trend;plus durative,intending unremarkable augment trend after 2000 A.D.;no matter how long the durative year was,the durative probability decreased orderly as low,normal and abundant state;self-conservative characteristic weakend orderly as low,normal and abundant state;no matter what initial state runoff was,the transition probability decreased orderly as low,normal and abundant state;during long evolvement progress of runoff,the low state had emergence predominance and the normal and abundant states had same emergence probability.