要素价格上涨对要素投入结构的影响研究——以花生生产为例

本文利用1998—2017年中国10个花生主产省(市)的面板数据,考察了初级生产要素价格上涨对我国花生生产要素投入结构的影响,进一步测算了要素之间的影子替代弹性,并分析了替代弹性的地区差异。本文对诱致性技术变迁理论进行了验证和拓展,研究发现:1)初级生产要素价格上涨和要素相对价格的提高对机械、化肥这两种要素投入均有显著的正向推动作用。化肥可以成为劳动的替代要素,土地要素与农业机械要素之间呈现伴随关系。2)劳动力与机械、劳动力与化肥、土地与化肥之间均存在明显的替代关系,土地与机械之间存在明显的互补关系。受地形条件的约束,劳动力与机械的替代弹性存在地区差异。因此,建议通过代耕代种、土地托管等多种形式的专业化服务促进土地适度规模经营,将农机农艺融合较为成熟的技术模式,作为农业农村部主推技术在花生主产区逐步推广,积极推广缓控释肥等新型肥料和分层施肥等新型节肥技术。

The study of the influence of input price increase on the input adoption structure--A case study of peanut production in China

Based on a panel data of peanut production inputs in 10 main peanut producing provinces in China from 1998 to 2017, this paper calculated the shadow substitution elasticities among different inputs and analyzed the regional differences to investigate the influence of price increase of primary inputs on the input adoption structure, and to verify and expand the theory of induced technology change. Results show that: 1) The increases of the primary input prices and the relative prices of inputs have significant positive impacts on both machinery inputs and fertilizer inputs. Fertilizer inputs could be substitutes for labor. There is an accompanying relationship between land and agricultural machinery; 2) There are clear substitutable relationships between labor and machinery, between labor and fertilizer, and between land and fertilizer; while there is a clear complementary relationship between land and machinery; and 3) There are regional differences in the substitution elasticity between labor and machinery subject to different terrain conditions. Policy recommendation includes: Promoting moderate scale operation of farmland through various forms of specialized services such as planting service and land trusteeship, taking mature integration model of agricultural machinery and agronomic fusion as extension technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and promoting new fertilizers such as slow-release fertilizers and new fertilizer-saving technologies such as layered fertilization.