哈尔滨市地下水水位预警模型

地下水水位的预警是对地下水进行合理规划、治理和修复的重要步骤。以1998～2007年哈尔滨市地下水水位的相关数据为基础,根据实际情况选择哈尔滨市地下水年消耗总量与年补给总量的比值作为警情指标。对于警兆指标,首先按照地下水补给与消耗的规律选取了38个相关因素,然后按照时差相关分析法从38个因素中选取了20个先行警兆指标。最后通过预警的有效性检验,构建了包含12个先行警兆指标的哈尔滨市地下水水位预警指标体系。在构建预警信号灯系统的过程中,将警区划分为红、黄、绿、蓝四色灯区,来代表不同的警情。然后计算各年警兆指标的警灯得分,最后计算出警情指标的得分,达到预警的目的。根据预警信号灯系统计算的结果,哈尔滨地下水位基本处于无警到轻警阶段,偶有中警阶段,2005年以后警情呈现出线性增长趋势。

Early warning model of groundwater level in Harbin

Early warning of groundwater level is an important part of groundwater reasonable planning,management and restoration. This paper chosen the ratio of Harbin groundwater consume and supply amount as the alert index of early warning by using the groundwater level from 1998 to 2007. In order to choose sign indexes,chosen 38 indexes related to consume and supply amount of groundwater first,then selected 20 forgoing indexes from 38 indexes by using the difference analysis. Finally,constructed Harbin groundwater level early warning system which included 12 forgoing warning indexes passing the effective testing. Separated four alert areas as Red,Yellow,Green and Blue to denote different warning events. Accounted the scores of early warning sign indexes in order to account the scores of alert index. As the results,Harbin groundwater level had no or light alert in most of the early years,and middle alert in seldom years. The alert index had a liner increase from 2005.