近60年赣江水沙变化及其驱动因素分析

近20年来，赣江流域输沙量明显减少，其变化将对鄱阳湖以及长江下游的泥沙运动以及泥沙冲淤变化等产生重要影响。根据赣江控制水文站实测水沙资料，采用定量分析的方法，分析了赣江流域年降水量、及河道径流量和输沙量的变化趋势及其发生显著变化的临界年份。结果表明：赣江外洲水文站输沙量存在显著的减少趋势；年降水量和年径流量没有表现出明显的变化趋势。输沙量发生显著的趋势性减小的临界年份为1989年。同时，利用历时曲线和双累积曲线两种方法，量化计算了赣江流域输沙量的减少量，定量分析了降水和人类活动对赣江流域输沙量的影响，确定了人类活动是赣江流域水沙变化的主要驱动因素。

An Analysis of Streamflow and Sediment Discharge in Ganjiang River Trend and Driving Force

In the past 20 years,the Ganjiang River Basin sediment discharge has decreased remarkably.This change will have a great impact on the water and sediment movement and changes in sediment erosion and deposition for Poyang Lake and downstream of Yangtze River.The objectives of this work are to quantify the decreasing trends of precipitation,streamflow and sediment discharge from 1950 to 2009 and to statistically identify change points or transition years in the changing trends.Results show that strong decreasing trends in annual sediment discharge(P=0.01) have existed since the late 1950s at Waizhou Hydrologic Station of the Ganjiang River.Change point analyses reveal that more rapid declines for sediment discharge began in 1989 at the stations(P=0.01).Two methods,duration curve and double mass curve are used to analyze change of sediment discharge in the Ganjiang River basin.Finally,the reasons for the trends and change-points in sediment discharge are analyzed.