水体重金属污染评价方法对比研究——以扎龙湿地湖水为例

采用对权重公式进行发展的模糊综合评价模型对仙鹤湖湖水重金属污染状况进行了评价和分析,并与灰色关联分析法、分级评价法、内梅罗指数法和单因子指数法进行了评价结果的比较,其中前3种方法的评价结果整体趋势是基本一致的。与实际情况对比表明,模糊综合法和分级评价法评价结果概率分布比较客观真实地反映了整体湖水水质状况,因此模糊综合法对评价对象的整体质量状况评价结果明显。基于评价结果进行了蒙特卡罗（MC）预测,参考各方法的评价结果的蒙特卡罗预测值和湖水水质实际情况,满足湖水评价参数的概率为74.87%,即扎龙湿地仙鹤湖湖水整体水质为Ⅱ级,同时有向Ⅲ级转化的趋势。扎龙湿地仙鹤湖营养状态级别为中度富营养。

Pollution Evaluation and Forecast of Heavy Mental in Lake of Zhalong Wetland,China

In this article,the developed fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on the weight of the formula was used to evaluate and analysis the heavy metal pollution situation of Xianhe Lake.Furthermore,the results were compared with the evaluation results of gray correlation analysis method,grading evaluation method,Nemerow index method,as well as the single factor index method.The results of the first three methods evaluation indicated that the whole trend was nearly the same.Compared with the actual situation,the results of the fuzzy synthesis evaluation method and grading evaluation more objectively reflected the whole lake water quality conditions.So the results of fuzzy synthesis evaluation evaluated the overall quality obviously.Based on the evaluation results of Monte Carlo（MC）,the results of the evaluation of reference method of Monte Carlo forecast value and the lake water actual situation,meet the lake evaluation parameters probability for 74.87%.That was to say the lake water quality for the whole Xianhe Lake of Zhalong wetland reached to the Ⅱ level,but existing a trend of transform to Ⅲ level.The nutrition state level of the Xianhe Lake of Zhalong wetland is medium eutrophication.