松嫩平原玉米、水稻、大豆、小麦生产的灰色动态经济模型研究

通过建立松嫩平原27县(市)四大作物(玉米、水稻、大豆、小麦)的灰色动态经济模型,结果指出现阶段松嫩平原四种作物生产中,直接生产费用占物质投入总量的比重分别稳定在小麦81.6％、大豆79.03％、水稻74.55％、玉米73.72％的水平上,四大作物的生产中都存在劳动力投入量相对减少而劳动力成本逐年上升的问题,基本稳定在平均工日成本水稻6.735元,大豆6.31元,玉米5.527元,小麦4.547元水平上。认为现阶段玉米、水稻、大豆生产系统具有自我发展活力,其物质投入和劳动力投入之和分别高于其临界投入量的2.831倍、2.01倍和4.16倍.小麦生产系统不具备自我发民活力,要使小麦生产良性发展,就投入而言,应增加不少于其当年净产值的0.44719倍.

A STUDY ON THE GREY ECONOMIC MODELS OF MAIZE, RICE, SOYBEAN AND WHEAT PRODUCTION IN SONGNEN PLAIN OF CHINA

By establishing the grey economic models of maize, rice, soybean and wheat in 27 counties of Songnen plain, it is pointed out that the input of labor has decreased, but the cost of labor has increased in recent years, which is about 6.735, 6.31, 5.527 and 4.547 yuan/man days in the production of rice, soybean, maize and wheat respectively. The total input of maize, rice and soybean is 2.831, 2.01 and 4.16 times of their critical input. respectively, but wheat is below its critical input. So the rice, maize and soybean production is well developed, but the wheat production has to increase the input about 0.44719 time of its net value.