生态底线约束下的国土生态空间碳储量预测：以襄阳市为例

为探究生态底线约束下的国土生态空间碳储存功能的时空响应特点，运用ArcGIS平台集合PLUS模型和InVEST-Carbon模型模拟并预测2000—2030年襄阳市生态空间碳储量变化及其空间特征。结果显示：2000—2020年间襄阳市生态空间面积缩减，预测到2030年在生态底线约束下的生态空间退化速度降低；到2030年，襄阳市碳储量由于生态空间变化相应转变，栅格单元碳储量最大值约为18.47 kg，主要分布在西部、东北和东南的林地中；热点分析呈现“热点集中、冷点分散”的格局，生态底线约束有助于优化襄阳市生态空间碳热点格局。

Predicting carbon storage of ecological space under constraints of ecological bottom line： taking Xiangyang City as an example

Ecological space is an important vehicle for maintaining regional carbon balance and securing carbon storage， and the redline area of ecological protection is an important part of ecological space. This article aimed at studying the spatial and temporal response of the carbon storage of the ecological space under the constraints of the ecological bottom line. The ArcGIS platform was used to integrate the PLUS model and the InVEST-Carbon model to predict and simulate the changes in carbon storage of ecological space and its spatial characteristics in Xiangyang City， Hubei Province， China， from 2000 to 2030. The results showed that the area of ecological space in Xiangyang City decreased between 2000 and 2020. It is predicted that the degradation rate of ecological space will decrease by 2030 under the constraints of the ecological bottom line. By 2030， the carbon storage in Xiangyang City will undergo a corresponding transformation due to changes in ecological space. The maximum carbon storage per grid unit is about 18.47 kg， mainly distributed in the forest land in the west， northeast， and southeast. The hotspot analysis presents a pattern of “concentrated hotspot and scattered cold spots”. The constraint of ecological bottom line helps to optimize the pattern of carbon hotspot in the ecological space of Xiangyang City. It will provide scientific guidance for implementing “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” strategies and promoting low-carbon planning in similar regions.