“双碳”目标下的农业碳问题研究进展及未来展望

减少农业碳排放，提高农业碳汇能力，是我国实现“双碳”目标的重要举措，也是潜力所在，故厘清农业碳问题的研究现状及其特征具有重要意义。为助力我国“双碳”目标早日实现，本文基于农业碳排放、农业碳汇以及农业低碳发展驱动因素3个维度对已有相关研究进行全面梳理：首先，明确了农业碳排放的基本概念并介绍了常见的测算方法，同时基于时序演变、空间分布、效率特征、减排路径等视角对其研究现状进行了回顾；其次，界定农业碳汇的基本概念，进而引申出森林碳汇、土壤碳汇和海洋碳汇并介绍各自的测算方法，而后则围绕农业净碳汇与碳汇市场化展开重点阐述；最后，从宏观和微观2个层面探讨影响农业低碳发展的主要因素，其中前者着眼于政策、经济、社会等方面，而后者则侧重于户主的内在因素和农户面临的外部环境。针对未来农业碳问题的研究方向，本文认为可重点围绕以下4个方面，即农业碳达峰的科学预测与差异化减排路径设计、农业减碳固碳潜力的科学评估与实现路径探讨、农业碳市场的构建与碳汇价值变现的思路探索以及农户低碳生产技术供需匹配探究与其制度优化。

Research progress and future prospects of agricultural carbon issues under “Dual carbon” goal

Reducing agricultural carbon emissions and improving the capacity of agricultural carbon sinks are important measures for China to realize the goal of “Dual-carbon”， which is also where the potential lies. Therefore， it is undoubtedly of great significance to clarify the current status of research on agricultural carbon issues and its characteristics. In order to contribute to the early realization of China’s “Dual-carbon” goal， this paper comprehensively comprehends the existing studies based on the three dimensions of agricultural carbon emissions， agricultural carbon sinks， and driving factors of agricultural low-carbon development. Specifically， firstly， the basic concepts of agricultural carbon emissions are clarified and common measurement methods are introduced， and the current research status is reviewed， taking into consideration temporal evolution， spatial distribution， efficiency characteristics， and emission reduction pathways. Secondly， the basic concepts of agricultural carbon sinks are defined， and the forest carbon sink， soil carbon sink and ocean carbon sink are derived， followed by the introduction of their respective measurement method. Then， the focus is on the net agricultural carbon sink and the marketization of carbon sink. Finally， the main factors that affect the development of low-carbon agriculture are discussed from both macro and micro levels. At the macro level， policy， economic and social factors are considered， while at the micro level， the internal factors of the head of the household and the external environment faced by the farmers are examined. With regards to the direction of future research on agricultural carbon issues， this paper believes that it should focus on the following four aspects， namely， the scientific prediction of agricultural carbon peaks and the design of differentiated emission reduction paths， the scientific assessment of the potential for agricultural carbon reduction and carbon sequestration and the discussion of paths to achieve these goals， the construction of an agricultural carbon market， and exploration of the idea of realizing the value of carbon sinks， as well as the exploration of the matching of the supply and demand of low-carbon production techniques by farmers and the optimization of their systems.