基于GWR模型的福建省绿色空间景观格局演变影响因素及其空间差异

由耕地、林地、草地、湿地及水域共同构成的绿色空间有利于提升城市生态环境，维护生物多样性和社会经济的可持续发展，理清福建省绿色空间的景观结构组成以及空间配置演变情况对构建生态屏障、打造全国生态示范省具有重要意义。以福建省绿色空间为对象，分析其景观格局在2000-2020年的演变，并采用地理加权回归（geographically weighted regression,GWR）构建回归模型，分析福建省绿色空间景观格局演变的影响因素及其空间差异性。结果表明:1)2000-2020年，整体绿色空间景观格局的时空变化特征较明显。福建省整体绿色空间破碎化程度上升，总体连通性降低和多样性降低。空间分布上，整体绿色格局破碎化、连通性和多样性变化随着空间位置不同而变化。2)GWR模型在空间位置层面对不同时期的绿色空间格局演变影响因素的解释优于普通最小二乘法（ordinary least squares,OLS）模型。GWR模型结果表明，社会经济影响因素对绿色空间景观格局破碎化、连通性、多样性的影响以负相关为主，且具有较显著的空间差异。自然因素中，地形、温度、降水对绿色空间景观格局的影响也具空间差异。分析揭示了福建省绿色空间景观格局的时空演变特征，并在空间层面上量化影响因素对绿色空间景观格局的影响特征，有助于进一步优化福建省绿色空间格局并构建福建省生态安全格局。

Evolution of Landscape Pattern of Green Space in Fujian Province:Influencing Factors and Spatial Differences Based on GWR Model

Composed of cultivated land,forest,grassland,wetland and water area,the green space is conducive to the improvement of urban ecological environment,the maintenance of biodiversity and the sustainable development of social economy.It is of great significance to clarify the composition of landscape structure and the evolution of spatial allocation of green space in Fujian Province for the construction of ecological barriers and national ecological demonstration province.Taking the green space in Fujian Province as the research object,this paper analyzed the evolution of its landscape pattern from 2000 to 2020,and constructed a regression model by using geographically weighted regression (GWR) to analyze the influencing factors and spatial differences of the evolution of the green space landscape pattern in Fujian Province.The results showed that 1) from 2000 to 2020,the spatial and temporal changes of the overall green space landscape pattern were obvious.The degree of fragmentation of the whole green space in therovince increased,and the overall connectivity and diversity decreased.The fragmentation,connectivity and diversity of the overall green pattern changed with different spatial locations.2) GWR model was superior to ordinary least squares (OLS) model in explaining the influencing factors of the evolution of green space pattern in different periods.The model results showed that socio-economic factors had negative correlation on fragmentation,connectivity and diversity of green space landscape pattern,and there were significant spatial differences.Among the natural factors,terrain,temperature and precipitation also had spatial differences in the landscape pattern of green space.The analysis revealed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the green space landscape pattern in the province,and quantified the influencing characteristics of influencing factors on the green space landscape pattern at the spatial level,which was helpful to optimize further the green space pattern and construct the ecological security pattern in Fujian Province.