第四纪末次盛冰期以来福建柏的潜在地理分布变迁

采用MaxEnt模型，对濒危孑遗植物福建柏末次盛冰期、全新世中期、现代和未来4个时期适生分布区情况及动态变迁过程进行模拟，探讨影响其分布的主要因素及对气候变化的响应。结果表明:1）平均气温日较差、最暖季平均温度、最干月降雨量对福建柏空间分布适宜性影响最大；2）福建柏分布对全球气候变化响应较为敏感，末次盛冰期其分布最广，为194.04万km²，随气候变暖，全新世中期和未来其分布范围分别缩小33.48万km²和31.26万km²；3）与现在相比，未来气候条件下福建柏整体呈“南北收缩”“东西扩张”分布趋势。研究结果不仅对我国热带和亚热带常绿阔叶林生物地理界限具有一定指示意义，也可为全球气候变暖背景下福建柏种质资源的保护和合理利用提供重要的理论基础。

Changes in Potential Geographical Distribution of Fokienia hodginsii Since the Last Glacial Maximum

In this approach,ecological niche modeling software MaxEnt (the maximum entropy model) was used to predict the potential geographic distribution of Fokienia hodginsii in four periods,namely,the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM),the Middle Holocene (MH),the Current and the Future.The results showed that 1) the important climate factors affecting the distribution of F.hodginsii were the average daily temperature range,the average temperature in the warmest season,and the driest monthly rainfall.2) F.hodginsii was very sensitive to global climate change.Its distribution range was the most extensive during the LGM,covering 1.940 4 million km²,and then contracted due to climate warming in the MH and the Future,which decreased by 334 800 km² and 312 600 km²,respectively.3) From Current to Future,the distribution range of F.hodginsii would undergo an overall trend of "north-south contraction" and "east-west expansion".The results will not only provide new insights into the biogeographic boundaries of tropical and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in China,but also have profound implications for the conservation and rational utilization of germplasm resources of F.hodginsii in the background of global warming.