农户生计兼业化影响因素分析

【目的】 研究分析不同因素对甘肃省石羊河流域农户兼业分化经营行为的影响。【方法】 采用实地调研、问卷调查和文献资料分析方法，调查问卷针对流域756个农户，运用有序probit模型和二值probit模型，分析流域农户兼业分化趋势的影响因素，及影响农户兼业分化程度的综合因素。【结果】 在排序模型中，性别在1%显著性水平上对农户兼业分化程度呈负向影响，年龄在10%及5%显著性水平上对农户兼业分化程度呈正向影响，婚姻状况在1%显著性水平上对农户兼业分化程度呈显著负向影响；家庭劳动力人数在1%显著性水平上正向促进农户兼业分化程度，农技培训在1%的显著性水平上对农户兼职分化程度具有负向影响；图书室在10%或1%显著性水平上对农户兼业分化程度呈正向作用，文化广场在1%显著性水平上对农户兼业分化程度呈负向作用，粮食补贴在10%显著性水平上对农户兼业分化程度呈负向作用，邻里关系在10%或5%显著性水平上对农户兼业分化程度呈负向作用；农户家庭生活满意度在1%的显著水平上对农户兼业分化程度呈正向影响，农户环境满意度在10%显著水平上对农户兼业分化程度呈负向影响。【结论】 年龄、家庭劳动力人数、图书室、家庭生活满意度等因素对农户兼业分化程度呈显著正向作用；性别、婚姻、农技培训、文化广场、粮食补贴、邻里关系、环境满意度等因素对农户兼业分化程度呈显著负向作用。

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Peasant Household Lending and Industry in Shiyang River Basin of Gansu Province

【Objective】 This study analyzes the influence of different factors on the differentiated management behavior of farmers in Shiyang River Basin， Gansu Province.【Methods】 Using field investigation， questionnaire survey and literature analysis，756 questionnaires of farmers in Shiyang River basin， Gansu Province， using ordered probit model and binary probit model， this paper analyzes the influencing factors of the trend of concurrent-business differentiation of farmers in Shiyang River Basin， Gansu Province， and explores the comprehensive factors that affect the degree of concurrent-business differentiation of farmers.【Results】 In the order model， gender had a negative effect on the degree of concurrent-business differentiation of farmers at the 1% significant level， age had a positive effect on the degree of concurrent-business differentiation of farmers at the 10% and 5% significant levels， marital status had a significant negative effect on the degree of concurrent-business differentiation of farmers at the 1% significant level， the number of family labor force was positively promoting the degree of concurrent-business differentiation of farmers at the 1% significant level， and agricultural technology training had a negative effect on the degree of part-time differentiation of farmers at the 1% significant level； The library has a positive effect on the degree of concurrent-business differentiation of farmers at the significant level of 10% or 1%， and the cultural square has a negative effect on the degree of concurrent-business differentiation of farmers at the 1% significant level.Grain subsidy had a negative effect on the degree of concurrent-business differentiation of farmers at 10% significant level， and neighborhood relationship had a negative effect on the degree of concurrent-business differentiation of farmers at 10% or 5% significant level. Household life satisfaction had a positive effect on farmers' concurrent-business differentiation at 1% significant level， and farmers' environmental satisfaction had a negative effect on farmers' concurrent-business differentiation at 10% significant level.【Conclusion】 The factors such as age， number of family labor force， library， family life satisfaction and so on have a significant positive effect on the degree of concurrent-business differentiation of farmers， gender， marriage， agricultural technology training， cultural square， food subsidies， neighborhood relations， environmental satisfaction and other factors have a significant negative effect on the degree of concurrent-business differentiation of farmers.