未来气候变化下贵州杜仲气候适宜性区划研究

为实现气候变化下杜仲的科学种植布局，基于CMIP6发布的2021-2040年的4种气候情景，利用最大熵模型研究了未来气候变化情景下贵州省杜仲种植的气候适宜性区划。结果表明，高气候适宜区主要分布在黔中、黔西南地区，低适宜和不适宜区主要分布于西北高海拔区和北部、东南部高温地区。4种未来气候情景下的杜仲生长气候适宜度体现出不同的空间分布。低排放情景下与现状接近，高排放表现为适宜度的降低和不适宜区的扩大。不适宜区的扩大主要分布于贵州省西北、北部和东南地区。综合4种气候情景绘制了杜仲气候适宜性区划图，高气候适宜区面积占全省面积的10.62%；高气候适宜区和中气候适宜区面积占全省面积的42.85%，开发潜力较大。研究同时统计了各县区杜仲适宜性种植潜力，分析了贵州杜仲适宜生长的气候条件。温度类变量对杜仲适宜度影响较大，贵州杜仲生长最适宜气候条件为年均温度在15~17.5 ℃、最暖季平均温度在23~26 ℃、最湿季节平均温在22.4~24.7 ℃，最热月极高温度在27.5~32 ℃、年均降水量在1 000 mm以上。海拔亦是影响杜仲适宜性区划的重要因素，贵州杜仲更适合海拔在700~1 400 m的区域生长。研究结果可作为未来杜仲种植布局的参考，以实现优质杜仲资源的高品质和高产。

Climate Suitability Regionalization of Eucommia ulmoides in Guizhou Province Under Future Climate Change

In order to realize scientific distribution of Eucommia ulmoides planting under future climate change scenarios,we studied the climate suitability regionalization of E.ulmoides in Guizhou Province with the maximum entropy model based on four climate scenarios from 2021-2040 published by CMIP6.The results showed that the high climate suitable areas would be mainly distributed in the central and southwest of Guizhou,while the low suitable and unsuitable areas would be mainly distributed in the northwest areas with high-altitude and the northern and southeast areas with high temperature.The climate suitability of E.ulmoides under the four future climate scenarios showed different spatial distribution characteristics.The suitability zoning of E.ulmoides under the low emission scenario would be close to the current situation,while under the high emission scenario,the suitability would decrease and the unsuitable areas would be expanded.The expansion of unsuitable areas would be mainly distributed in northwest,north and southeast of Guizhou Province.Based on the four future climate scenarios,the climate suitability zoning map of E.ulmoides was drawn which showed that the high climate suitable areas accounted for 10.62% of the whole province.The high climate suitable areas and medium climate suitable areas accounted for 42.85% of the total areas of the province,which had great potential for E.ulmoides planting.Meanwhile,the suitable planting potential of E.ulmoides in each county in Guizhou Province was counted,and the suitable climatic condition of the growth of E.ulmoides was analyzed.It was shown that the temperature variable had a great influence on the growth suitability of E.ulmoides.The most suitable climatic conditions of the growth of E.ulmoides in Guizhou included the following factors:the annual average temperature between 15-17.5 ℃,the average temperature in the warmest season between 23-26 ℃,the average temperature in the wettest season between 22.4-24.7 ℃,the extremely high temperature in the hottest month between 27.5-32 ℃,and the annual average precipitation over 1 000 mm.It was also shown that altitude was an important factor affecting the suitability regionalization of E.ulmoides.The areas with the altitudes of 700-1 400 m elevation were more suitable for the growth of E.ulmoides in Guizhou Province.The results of this study can be used as a reference for the planting layout of E.ulmoides to achieve high quality and yield of good resources in the future.