祁连山国家公园生态承载力年际变化特征及其影响因素分析

基于2000—2019年祁连山国家公园境内的卫星遥感和社会经济统计数据,综合运用DPSIR、TOPSIS和障碍度模型,构建生态承载力评价指标体系,分析生态承载力年际变化特征,量化生态承载力状况,揭示影响生态承载力的主要障碍因素。结果表明：研究时段内生态承载力状况较差,经济发展与生态环境保护矛盾突出。2000—2014年生态承载力降低,2014—2019年生态承载力增加。驱动力和压力子系统变化是导致2014年之前生态承载力降低的主要因素,2014年以后生态承载力增加是驱动力、压力和响应子系统共同作用的结果。响应子系统是影响现阶段生态承载力的主要障碍因素,其次是驱动力和压力子系统。随时间推移,响应子系统对生态承载力的影响减弱,驱动力子系统对生态承载力的影响增强。未来应将国家公园纳入区域发展,耦合协调生态环境保护与社会经济发展的关系。

Inter-annual Variation of Ecological Carrying Capacity and Its Controlling Factors in Qilian Mountain National Park

Based on the satellite remote sensing and socio-economic statistical data of Qilian Mountain National Park from 2000 to 2019,as well as the DPSIR,TOPSIS and obstacle degree models,this study built an assessment indicator system for ecological carrying capacity (ECC). We also investigated the inter-annual variation and the status of ECC. The dominant obstacle factors for ECC were examined. The results showed that the overall status of ECC was relatively poor during the study period,suggesting that the contradiction between economic development and eco-environment protection was manifest. ECC decreased from 2000 to 2014 and then increased afterwards. Driving force and pressure subsystems were the dominant factors for ECC decline before 2014. Nevertheless,the increase of ECC after 2014 was caused by the changes of driving force,pressure and response subsystems. The response subsystem was the main obstacle factor that affected ECC dynamics,followed by driving force and pressure subsystems. Influence of the response subsystem on ECC decreased over time,but an increasing impact of the driving force subsystem on ECC occurred. It is suggested that Qilian Mountain National Park should be included in future regional development to build a harmonious relationship between eco-environment protection and socioeconomic development.