当前玉米库存积压问题研究与对策探讨

近年来我国粮食等大宗农产品库存普遍呈现出高位积压的态势,而在三大主粮中以玉米的库存积压问题最为严重。本文首先结合玉米库存消费比指标分析阐述了近年来玉米库存水平的变化走势,指出玉米库存积压不仅增加了政府储粮负担,还会加重农民卖粮难困境。然后探讨了玉米库存积压的原因,主要包括国内玉米稳产增产、玉米进口量增加,以及玉米替代品大量进口而抑制了玉米消费增长。为此,针对目前化解玉米库存的对策和提议,即新建仓库、减少补贴从而调减生产、发展生物燃料等,指出这些解决方案的可行性和有效性上存在一定不足,并且可能会造成一系列负面影响。在此基础上,从短期和长期提出了化解玉米库存积压问题的解决方案,从短期看主要是增加玉米的市场需求、减少玉米及其替代品进口;从长期看,则主要是调整玉米种植结构,对耕地进行休耕改造,提高玉米生产效率和潜在产能,实行"藏粮于地"的库存战略;打造中国具有国际影响力的粮商和在自贸区尝试建设全球玉米贸易流通及库存中心,从而增强我国在国际玉米流通贸易中的主动权和话语权,达到保障国内玉米供需平衡的目的。

The challenges and solutions of corn overstocking in China

In recent years, overstocking of agricultural commodities is a serious problem in China, especially for corn. Based on the stock to consumption ratio of corn, this paper analyzed the variation tendency of corn stock in the past fourteen years. Results indicate that corn overstocking has created a financial burden for the Government and made it difficult for farmers to sell their corn. The main reasons of corn overstocking include increased yield per acre, increased corn imports, and increased imported corn substitutes. To reduce corn stock and increase corn consumption in China, this paper provides the following suggestions: 1) increasing corn demand and reducing the imports of corn and its substitutes in the short run; 2) in the long run, adjusting the planting structure in China and increasing ecological fallow operation, improving the corn productivity, and encouraging Chinese international grain dealers to build the global distribution and stock centers for corn.