美国的森林动态评价模型及其对中国森林健康评价的启示

应用动态模型评价森林健康状况,预测树木或林分的生长与收获,以及在不同立地条件下采用某些特定的营林技术措施后林分的动态变化,一直是森林健康评价及管理的核心问题.当前在美国应用的两个森林动态评价及决策模型SIMPPLLE和MAGIS主要是用来评价当前林分状况、模拟林分发展以及预测不同经营管理方式下林分未来的动态变化状况,通过分析不同决策下森林植被的收获状况,选择最优化的管理措施以及实施措施的时间及地点制定最优化决策.针对现阶段中国森林健康评价中,以建立评价指标体系进行静态评价、缺乏空间信息数据和森林健康经营动态变化规律模型等问题,提出今后应针对中国实际情况开展切合实际的研究,开发出以促进森林健康经营为目的的动态预测模型和决策模型,提高森林健康的预测能力,完善森林健康经营综合评价技术体系.

American forest dynamic model of evaluation and impact on evaluation of forest health in China

The application of dynamic models to predict the growth and harvest of trees or stands and evaluate forest health, as well as under different site conditions in the use of certain specific technical raeasures of forest stands after the dynamic changes in forest health has been the core issues of the evaluation and management. The dynamic model SIMPPLLE and MAGIS development in USA is mainly used to evaluate the current situation stands; simulate stand development and forecast the dynamic changes of the future under different stand management conditions; under different decision- making through the analysis of the harvest of forest vegetation conditions, choose the most optimized management measures and the implementation of measures to develop the time and place for optimal decision- making. For forest health assessment at the current stage in China, the issues such as estabhshing evaluation index system for the static evaluation, as well as lacking spatial information data and dynamic change model for forest health operation were existed. Thus, in the future we should carry out practical research according to the actual situation in China, develop dynamic forecasting model and decision - making model for the purpose of promoting the forest health manegement,increase the predictive power of forest health, and improve the integrated evaluation techniques for forest health system operation.