甜菜夜蛾预测方法研究

应用菏泽市虫情历史资料,在分析影响甜菜夜蛾发生因素的基础上,制定了利用历期、有效积温预测发生期和利用综合分析、逐步回归分析预测发生程度的方法,并分别组建了主要发生为害代三、四代的发生程度预测回归式.通过实际预报应用检验,证明所制定的预测方法较为准确可行.

RESEARCH ON FORECASTING THE INCIDENCE OF BEET ARMY WORM ( LAPHYGMA EXIGUA )

Based on analyzing historic records of the incidence of Laphygma exigua in Heze city and factors affecting its occurrence, the forecasting methods for the predication of occurring time by calendar and effective accumulative temperature and for the occurring degrees by systemic and progressive regression analysis were developed. The regression equations of the occurring degree of the main damage generation, the third and the fourth generation were established. The forecast methods were accurate and proofed by checking with actual occurring data.