中国“农业北水南调虚拟工程”现状及思考

基于中国南北方粮食调动的变化分析，结合农业水足迹与虚拟水理论，提出中国在实施南水北调实体工程建设的同时，自1990年已经形成并运行着一个“农业北水南调虚拟工程”。计算结果表明，该工程在1990－2008年期间年均调运虚拟水量已超过200亿m3，远大于南水北调实体工程目前的调水规模；北水南调虚拟工程调水量总体上呈增加趋势，依靠现有南水北调实体工程难以支撑中国北方粮食生产，解决这一问题的唯一出路只能是依靠科学技术，大力发展现代节水农业，提高粮食生产的综合用水效率。考虑到中国南北方经济状况的现实差距，以及“农业北水南调虚拟工程”的长期运行，建议国家实施区域虚拟水贸易战略，同时，加强区域农业水足迹演变与控制研究，制定区域农业水足迹相关技术标准，为实施区域虚拟水贸易战略提供科学依据与政策支持。

Status and thoughts of Chinese "agricultural north-to-south water diversion virtual engineering"

Based on the variable analysis of Chinese north and south grain transfer and combined agricultural water footprint theory,this paper puts forward that at the same time of implementing South-to-North water diversion entity engineering construction,theagricultural North-to-South water diversion virtual engineeringhas been formed and carried out since 1990.The calculating results showed that:this engineering has transferred over 20 billion cubic meters virtual water from 1990 to 2008,which was much more than t...