基于VAR模型的安徽省农村人口流动与粮食产量的关系研究

基于1993-2014年安徽省的粮食总产量、流动人口比例、城镇化率等时间序列数据,采取构建VAR模型的方法,实证分析了安徽省农村人口流动对粮食产量的影响。研究结果表明,短期看,流动人口比例对粮食产量产生促进作用,主要是因为农村人口流出的增加有利于减缓人地矛盾,提升土地的边际效益;但城镇化率对粮食产量无明显的促进作用。另外,粮食播种面积、农村用电量和农用化肥施用量在短期内对粮食产量具有推进作用。基于此,提出保护耕地、加快发展现代农业的建议。

Research on the Relationship between Rural Population Float and Grain Yield In Anhui Based on VAR Model

Based on the time series data of total grain yield, floating population rate and urbanization level in Anhui province during 1993-2014, a VAR model was constructed to analyze the influence of rural population float on grain yield. The results showed that, in the short term, the floating population rate had a good effect on grain yield, mainly due to the less pressure of the population-land contradiction and increased marginal benefit of land from the massive floating population. However, the urbanization level had no significant effect on grain yield. In addition, the grain sown area, rural electricity power consumption and chemical fertilizers had promotion effect on grain yield in the short term. Based on this, suggestions to protect arable land, to improve the permanent protection area of basic good farmland and to accelerate the development of agricultural modernization were put forward.