烟粉虱种群数量消长规律与模型测报技术研究

为了揭示烟粉虱种群数量季节性消长规律,提高其预测预报水平,2006年2月至2007年2月利用塑料黄板涂抹机油在浙江临海城郊蔬菜基地系统诱测烟粉虱成虫消长情况,结果表明烟粉虱种群数量消长呈双峰型曲线变化,并分析了烟粉虱种群消长特性,以及与气象、耕作条件的相关性,建立了8种数学预测模型。应用这些模型可提前反映全年36个旬期的成虫数量变化动态,可进行全年灾变预警以及各旬期的预测预报,经检验预测吻合度达60%。对提高烟粉虱监测预警与综合防治水平具有重要指导意义。

Seasonal Population Dynamics of Whitefly(Bemisia tabaci) and Model Simulation

Using yellow sticky trap,the seasonal fluctuation of adult population of Bemisia tabaci was investigated in vegetable area of Linhai between Feb.2006 and Feb.2007.This investigation showed two occurrence peaks of adult population of the whitefly a year,one occured between spring and summer season and the other in autumn.Eight models were established according to the population feature and its correlation with climate and agricultural factors.Simulation analysis showed that prediction of these models was in the range of 60.9% coincident with the invistigation.The population levels of adult whitefly based on ten days a year could be predicted with these models and thus the early warning could be made according to the model simulation.