湖北省不同杂交水稻品种扩散模型的研究

利用1998-2014年湖北省农业统计数据,拟合了两优培九、Ⅱ优725、金优928、金优207、金优402、两优287和鄂粳杂1号7个杂交水稻品种的技术扩散模型;并运用Logistic模型对最大种植面积、扩散速度和进入拐点时间等参数与品种特性关系进行了分析。发现同一地区不同品种的扩散模型是不相同的;品种特性与模型参数有着密切关联,其中抗病性影响较大;同一季别内模型的截距项与新品种引入数量的多寡呈负相关关系;推广速度越快的品种,其进入拐点时间越早。

Research on the Technology Diffusion Model of Different Hybrid Rice Varieties in Hubei Province

By using the agricultural statistical data of 1998-2014 in Hubei province, the technology diffusion model for seven varieties of hybrid rice, including Liangyoupeijiu Oryza, Ⅱ725, Jinyou 928, Jinyou 207, Jinyou 402, Liangyou 287, and E-Gen-Za No.1 were fitted and established. Based on the logistic model, the relationship between the largest planting area, the diffusion speed and time into a turning point were analyzed. The results showed that the diffusion parameters of different varieties in the same area were not the same. Variety characteristics were closely related with these parameters, especially the disease resistance. The intercept items of the model were negatively related with the amount of new varieties introduced quan-tity in the same quarter. The faster the varieties extension, the earlier the time they may enter the turning point.