玉米需求总量及其结构预测方法准确度比较

在分析国内代表性玉米需求预测文献的基础上,重点对其预测值与观测值的误差进行计算,并用方差分析比较玉米总需求预测和需求结构预测的误差。结果显示,玉米需求结构预测方法的准确度更高。对玉米需求结构进行预测,能更直观地反映中国玉米的需求结构及变化趋势,清晰各部分预测误差大小,便于日后调整预测方法,从而提高精度。

A Comparison of Accuracy Between Total Forecast and Structure Prediction of Corn Demand

Based on analysis of representative domestic literatures related to the corn demand forecast, the deviations between predicted and observed values were emphatically calculated, and the errors between total demand forecast and structure de-mand prediction were compared with ANOVA. The results showed the accuracy of structure forecast was higher than that of total forecast. The forecast of corn demand structure could not only more directly present its tendency in China, but also clearly reflect the values of each error. So it would be favorable for the future adjustment of forecast method, so as to en-hance prediction accuracy.