三江平原粮食主产区年降水序列多时间尺度分析

近年来,干旱气象已开始进入非传统旱区的三江平原,为研究这一气象灾害,文章以红兴隆分局局直及其所辖10个农场的年平均降水为研究对象,采用Morlet小波对其进行年平均降水序列多时间尺度分析,显示在不同时间尺度下,三江平原旱、涝交替变化的过程。结果表明,其年平均降水周期具有3年和11年两个主要阶段。这两个主要周期的变化,主导着年平均降水变化的特性,且自2008年以来,三江平原年降水变化的大趋势是低于其多年平均水平,并会持续若干年。

Multi-time scale analysis of precipitation in major grain production regions of Sanjiang Plain

In order to research the drought phenomenon of Sanjiang Plain that has appeared in the unconventional drought region fmquently in recent years,the article took the annual average precipitation of Hongxinglong Branch Bureau and its 10 famls as the basic data,to analyze the multi-time scales variation characteristics with the application of a complex Modet wavelet.The alternate variation process of drought and flood were also shown in the different time scales.The results showed that annual average precipitation series had two main periods which were 3 years and 11 years;the changes of the two main periods played a major role in variant characteristics of annual average precipitation;and the major variant trend of the annual average precipitation has been in the low flow since 2008.