森林可燃物含水率及其预测模型研究进展

森林可燃物是森林火灾发生的物质基础，其含水率的变化直接影响森林可燃物着火的难易程度。高效准确地模拟森林可燃物含水率动态变化的规律，对预测预报林火发生或林火行为具有重要意义。文中从可燃物含水率的影响因子、理论算法、预测模型3个方面阐述了森林可燃物含水率及其预测模型研究进展；指出了研究存在的问题；提出了可燃物含水率研究展望:加强野外定位观测研究，优化测定方法并强化野外采样和室内试验标准化工作，加强可燃物含水率时空异质性研究，加强观测尺度外推问题研究并构建含水率遥感反演模型。

Forest Fuel Moisture Content and Its Prediction Model

Forest fuels are the materials that are the basis for forest fire and the dynamics of its moisture content directly affects the possibility of forest fire. Efficient and accurate simulation of the change in forest fuel moisture content is significant for predicting forest fires or fire behaviors. This paper reviewed the research on moisture content of forest fuels and their prediction model from 3 aspects of influence factors, theoretic algorithm and prediction model, and pointed out the problems arising in the research. It was proposed that the research on the moisture content of fuels should put the focus on field positioning observation, optimization of measurements, field sampling and indoor test standardization, heterogeneous spatio and temporal change of fuel moisture content, extrapolation of research scale and the retrieval model of the remote sensing of fuel moisture content.