| 径流丰枯时间序列的分形特征及R/S分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭立,苏春江,徐云,满正闯. 径流丰枯时间序列的分形特征及R/S分析[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2007, 35(1): 4-5,8. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2007.01.002 |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭立 苏春江 徐云 满正闯 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都,610041;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049;中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都,610041 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家973项目（2003CB415201-5）. |
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| 摘 要： | 在分形概念基础上介绍分形在水文时间序列中的应用.利用多年径流的丰枯时间序列的分形特征,根据岷江上游多年径流丰枯变化的实测资料, 运用R/S分析的原理和方法计算了H指数,建立了R(i)/S(i)与i的关系式, 对多年径流的丰枯变化长期趋势进行预测分析,并给出预测未来短期枯水/丰水年出现年份的方法,实证结果表明该方法具有实际意义.
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| 关 键 词： | 分形理论 时间序列 R/S分析 H指数 岷江上游 |
| 文章编号： | 0517-6611（2007）01-00004-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-26 |
Study on Fractal Characteristics and R/S Analysis of Low and High Runoff Time Series |
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| PENG Li et al. Study on Fractal Characteristics and R/S Analysis of Low and High Runoff Time Series[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2007, 35(1): 4-5,8. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2007.01.002 |
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| Authors: | PENG Li et al |
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| Affiliation: | Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041 |
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| Abstract: | This paper introduces the application of fractal theory in the hydrological time series based on the concept of fractal.According to the measured data of low and high runoff time series in the upper reaches of Minjiang river,H index is calculated,and relation of R(i)/S(i) and i is established,then change tendency of low and high runoff is forecast by means of the principle and method of R /S analysis.The experiment results show that the method has practical significance. |
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| Keywords: | Fractal theory Time series R/S analysis H index The upper reaches of Minjiang river |
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