基于产业要素年代差距分析的农业现代化水平国际比较研究

【目的】农业现代化是中国“四化同步”的重要组成，分析中国与发达国家农业现代化发展的相对差距，界定中国农业发展的全球定位。【方法】FAO在相关研究中提出：农业现代化发展是一个渐进的规律性过程，该过程伴随着一系列基本特征的趋势性变化。承认农业现代化发展内在的规律性是进行农业现代化水平国际比较的前提条件。在此基础上，论文提出如下两个核心假设作为使用年代差距进行农业现代化发展水平国际比较探究的基础：①不同国家农业现代化发展具有共性特征，不同国家的农业现代化发展会经历相同的历史阶段，在不同阶段表现出大致相同的特征。②核心指标在农业现代化某阶段的单位变化率相同，即不同国家的相关指标在相同发展阶段面临相同的变化率。据此提出计算不同指标序列年代差距的核心计算公式：Dj=Ya-Wjb±（Xa-Xjb）/Xjb。论文在充分借鉴国内外学者相关研究的基础上，建立了包含农业经济效益、经济结构转型、农村经济社会发展、农业可持续发展4个一级指标和10个二级指标组成的综合评价体系。选定美国、英国、日本、印度、巴西、南非六国作为国际比较的典型国家。其中美、英、日三国农业现代化起步早，在农业现代化发展过程中表现出的历史特征，可以作为中国农业现代化发展的长期对照，中国、印度、巴西、南非同为高速变革的发展中国家，面临众多相同的机遇和挑战，宏微观政策各有得失，经验教训更为深刻，将巴西、印度、南非作为典型国家作对比具有参照意义。【结果】测算表明，中国农业现代化发展总体水平大体相当于美、英等国20世纪60年代末到80年代初水平，同日本20世纪90年代初期水平相当，与印度、巴西等国基本处于相同的发展阶段。从分项指标看，中国的农业现代化存在自身发展不均衡问题，各核心指标分化较为严重，耦合性不高，这种不均衡限制了农业现代化总体水平进一步提高。【结论】基于年代差距法的农业现代化水平国际比较方法具有操作简单，易理解，结果直观的特点，可作为分析农业现代化问题，评估农业现代化发展水平的有效工具。

Comparison Study on the Level of International Agricultural Modernization Based on the Method of Generation Gap of Industry Elements

【Objective】Agriculture modernization is an important part of achieving the ‘four Modernization Synchronization’ development in China. Gap analysis on agricultural modernization development between China and developed countries is helpful to figure out the global positioning of Chinese agricultural modernization. 【Method】 The related references sourced from FAO promoted that agricultural modernization development was a gradual principle process, which was companied with a trend of serious of basic character change. The acknowledgement of the inner principle of agricultural modernization development was the necessary precondition among international comparison. On that base, the paper promoted two core hypothesis, which contained that agricultural modernization development had the common trait, similar historical steps with corresponding characters among different countries; core index of changing rate were same in the steps of agricultural modernization according to different countries, were the base of generation gap to study the comparison of international agricultural modernization development. Therefore, the formulation of generation gap among different index was as follows: D_j=Y_a-W_jb±（X_a-X_jb）/X_jb Based on the related references at home and aboard, a comprehensive index system was built to compare the agricultural modernization development, which was composed of four one-level indexes (Agricultural Economic Benefit, Transformation of Economic Structure, Rural Economic and Social Development and Agricultural sustainable development) and ten second-level indexes. The paper focused on typical countries such as USA, UK, Japan, India, Brazil, South Africa and China to make international comparison, of which, the started early agricultural modernization in the USA, the UK, and Japan could be taken as a long-time comparison in agricultural modernization development due to their historical traits in agricultural modernization development. Meanwhile, Brazil, India and South Africa could be selected as typical countries in comparison, for that the above countries were all belong to developing countries in high speed development, with the many similar opportunities, challenge, policy making and lessons.【Result】The current level of agricultural modernization development in China acted properly as the same level in the end of 1960s to the beginning of 1980s in the USA and the UK, and the beginning of 1990s’ in Japan, which had the similar developing steps in India and Brazil. With respect of sub-index, the unequilibrium agricultural modernization in China was caused by the diversification and low coupling of the core index, which restricted the overall progress of agricultural modernization.【Conclusion】The generation gap analysis was available for evaluate agricultural modernization development, which was easy access to the international comparison and could be used as a tool to analyze agricultural modernization and appraisal agricultural modernization development.