中国棉花产业发展现状及展望

棉花是中国种植业生产中产业链最长的大田经济作物，其商品率高达95%以上，但棉花产业尚存在许多不足之处，需要涉棉企业、棉农、科技人员、学者进一步关注，如自主种业、品牌培育、清洁生产、统防统治、贸易依存度、产业安全、规模经济、产业组织等因素影响中国棉花的产业竞争力和可持续发展。中国棉花种植以新疆、黄河流域、长江流域为主，其中新疆棉花产量占全国产量的67%，已形成规模化和机械化种植，而长江、黄河流域仍以小规模种植为主，没有充分发挥新型经营主体的带动作用，无法形成规模化种植和机械化生产，且缺乏集棉花生产、加工、销售为一体的综合数据平台，在棉花的专业化服务、全程服务和托管式服务方面仅有数家。中国棉花产业未来发展方向和目标应是提升棉田生产规模化、机械化、智能化、信息化、服务社会化水平，研发轻简化生产技术使棉农有尊严快乐植棉，降低生产成本，解决谁来种地的问题，掌控棉花产业链条的主动权。文中从棉花产业链的供求角度出发，阐述了中国棉花种植面积和总产量大幅减少、产业布局上新疆一枝独秀、国内消费有所降低但供求形势有所好转、进口量长期大于出口量和纺织业优势递减的发展现状，分析了中国棉花产业在生产环节、产业布局、组织管理、平台建设等方面存在的问题，借鉴美国和澳大利亚在棉花品种、生产技术、机械化和国家政策的种植经验和发展优势，结合中国供给侧结构改革的政策背景，从培育棉花新品种、研发轻简化和机械化新技术、投入农机设备、优化品种品质和区域布局、科学防治病虫害提高棉花质量、制定棉花目标价格制度、提高棉花生产保险额度、加大对棉农、棉商、农机制造商、纺织企业、出口商等的补贴力度和政策保障力度、发挥产学研优势和棉花协会功能、构建产供销一体化平台、完善棉花供需调控体系、建设现代植棉业服务体系、借助“一带一路”契机带动棉花和纺织业走出国门等多个层面提出相应的对策建议，从而刺激国内有效供给，尽快实现中国棉花产业供需平衡。最后，对中国棉花产业进行展望，将“三去一降一补”应用于棉花产业，并顺应全球棉花去库存的格局，未来两年棉价将有所上涨。

The Present Situation and Prospects of Cotton Industry Development in China

Cotton is the longest chain of field commercial crops of China’s planting industry, which the commodity rate is as high as more than 95%, but still exists many shortcomings of the cotton industry which require further attention from cotton enterprises, cotton farmers, scientific and technical personnel, and scholars, such as independent seed industry, brand cultivation, cleaner production, unified management and pest control, dependence on foreign trade, industrial security and economies of scale, industrial organization and other factors that influence China''s cotton industry competitiveness and sustainable development. The major production areas of cotton in China are Xinjiang, the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze river basin, for example, Xinjiang cotton production accounts for 67% of the national output and has formed scale and mechanization planting, but the Yangtze river basin and the Yellow River basin still practice the small scale economy, not full play the leading role of the new type of management main body, the scale planting and mechanized production, is lack of the integrated data platform of cotton production can not be formed, and processing and marketing, and only several departments are engaged in professional service, one-on-one full service and hosted service. The development direction and goal of cotton production in China should be improved the level of cotton production scale, mechanization, intelligence, informationization, socialization service, development of light-simplified production technology that makes cotton farmers to grow cotton more happily and with more dignity, reduce production cost, solve the problem who is going to a tiller of the ground, control tightly cotton industry chain. From the Angle of the cotton industry chain of supply and demand, this paper expounded the present situation of development of cotton industry that the Chinese cotton planting area and output decreased, the industrial layout in Xinjiang outshines others, the domestic consumption has decreased, but the supply and demand situation has been improved, the imports are greater than the exports over a long period of time and the advantages of textile industry decreased gradually, and so on. A series of problems about Chinese cotton industry in the production process, the industrial layout, organization and management, and platform construction were analyzed. Based on the practice of the growing experience and development advantages of the United States and Australia in cotton varieties, production technology, mechanization and national policy, combining with the policy background of China''s reform of structure of the supply side, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were put forward including cultivating new cotton varieties, researching new technology of light-simplified and mechanized production, the input of agricultural machinery equipment, optimization of varieties, quality and area layout, scientifically preventing and controlling plant diseases and insect pests to improve the quality of cotton, develop cotton price target system, improve the insurance amount of cotton production, increase subsidies and policy support dynamics of cotton farmers, cotton business, agricultural machinery manufacturers, textile companies, exporters and so on, giving play to the advantages of production and cotton association function, building platforms of production-supply-sales integration, perfecting the regulation system of cotton supply and demand, construction of the modern cotton industry service system, driving the cotton and textile industry abroad with the help of One Belt And One Road, and so on, in order to stimulate domestic effective supply, achieve the equilibrium of supply and demand of China''s cotton industry as soon as possible. Finally, the prospects for China''s cotton industry were presented, the three cuts-one reduction-one subsidy (cut overcapacity, cut stores, cut levers-one-reduction-one subsidy) should be used in cotton industry and conform to the pattern of global cotton to get rid of the inventory, and cotton prices will be higher in the coming two years.