本溪地区旱涝强度指数变化与预测

利用辽宁省本溪地区1953～2008年的月平均气温和降水资料,分析本溪地区降水量、气温和蒸发量变化特征,确定利用降水量与蒸发量之差的Z指数表征旱涝强度,该指数可以较好地表征本溪地区旱涝强度状况。分析表明,本溪地区旱涝强度指数不但具有显著的年代际变化特征,且年振荡的信号也很强。Mann-Kendall方法检验结果表明,本溪地区温度发生了由冷向暖的转变,1988年气温发生突变。随着年代变化,旱涝指数发生了转变,涝的频率在减少,旱的频率在增加。运用马尔可夫链对旱涝强度指数进行预测,对指导长期预报具有重要的参考作用。

Drought Intensity Index Variation and Prediction in Benxi

Based on the average monthly temperature and precipitation data in Benxi from 1953 to 2008,change characteristics of the precipitation,temperature and evaporation were analyzed,the use of the difference between precipitation and evaporation characterization of droughts and intensity of Z-index,the index can be more good condition characterized by intensity of droughts and floods in Benxi.The results showd that the index of the drought intensity not only has significant decadal variations,but also a very strong year oscillation signal.With the Mann-Kendall test,the temperature changes from cold to warm,the temperature mutation in 1988.With the of era change,the drought and flood index has shifted,the frequency of floods is in reducing,droughts increase in frequency.The forecasts of drought and flood intensity index is used of Markov chain.