宁夏盐池牧草返青期预测及生产潜力初步分析

为寻求合理有效的防治对策,进一步发展我区草地畜牧业生产,保持草原生态环境平衡和良性发展、控制水土流失,开发气候资源,实现草地资源的可持续利用,改善生态环境等,通过探寻宁夏代表性天然牧草(禾本科、豆科)的返青指标,运用SPSS数据分析软件建立返青期预测回归模型;运用迈阿密模型和Tharnthwaite Memorial模型计算牧草气候生产潜力。结果表明,禾本科牧草返青期为五日滑动平均气温稳定通过0℃初日后11～17 d;豆科牧草返青的日期范围为预测日期的前4 d到后6 d;光合生产潜力的温度衰减幅度较小,而水分衰减幅度较大,水分是牧草气候生产潜力的主要限制因子;牧草返青呈现逐年提早趋势,气候生产潜力随着时间的发展有略微增加,符合气温升高、降水略微增加的气候变化趋势。

Prediction of pasture reviving period and analysis of its climate potential productivity

To find reasonable and effective control measures for development of livestock and pasture in our region and to keep an ecological balance and healthy development of pasture, to control soil erosion, develop climate resources, achieve pasture resources sustainable use and improve the ecological environment, a regression model was built in the context of climate change, by applying SPSS to explore the revival indicators of Ningxia representative natural pasture (Gramineae, Leguminous). Climate potential productivity was calculated using the Miami and Tharnthwaite Memorial models. The reviving period of Gramineae was the date that sliding average temperatures of five days stably exceeded the first day of 0℃ accumulated temperatures of 11-17 days later. Legumes turned green 4 days before to 6 days after the forecast date. Attenuation of light potential production was smaller than that of water which was the main limiting factor of grass climate potential productivity. Pasture re-greened earlier and climate potential productivity increased slightly with a trend of temperature rising and rainfall increasing.