基于IRF的农业科研投入、产出与经济增长互动关系研究

农业科技是加快现代农业建设的决定力量。基于Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数等方法,分析了我国1993-2011年间农业科研财政投入、科研成果产出与农业经济发展的因果关系及相互的脉冲响应规律,探讨了农业科研对农业经济贡献力不高的原因及改进措施。结果表明,农业经济发展与农业科研财政投入之间存在单向因果关系,农业科研成果与农业经济发展之间存在单向因果关系,但农业科研财政投入与科研成果产出之间无明显因果关系;农业科研成果在滞后2-3期开始对农业经济产生较大影响,而农业科研财政投入在滞后3-4期对农业经济的影响最大;农业科研投入对农业经济发展波动的方差贡献率约为50%,科研成果对农业经济发展波动的方差贡献率约为46%。提高农业科研对经济发展的贡献,需形成农业科研财政投入稳定增长促进农业科研成果稳定增长的有效机制,积极引导研需有机衔接,促进农业科研成果转化及技术扩散。

Study on the dynamic relationship between the input and output of agricultural research and agricultural economic growth

Agricultural research is a determinant factor of agricultural modernization. Applying the Ganger causality test, impulse response function, and variance decomposition analysis, this study estimates the causal relationship and inter-impulse between the input and output of agricultural research and agricultural economic growth from 1993 to 2011 and discusses the cause of low contribution of agricultural research to agricultural economy and the improvement measures. Results show that agricultural research is the cause of agricultural economic growth and agricultural research has a long-term positive effect on agricultural economic growth. This study does not find any causal relationship between agricultural research appropriations and research outputs. The contribution of research outputs to agricultural economic growth begins in the second year and reaches the highest level in the third or fourth year. The relative variance contribution of appropriation to agricultural economic growth is about 50% and the relative variance contribution of agricultural research outputs to agricultural economic growth is about 46%. To improve the contribution of agricultural research to agricultural economic growth, it is suggested to establish a more stable financial allocation mechanism, ensuring a steady growth of agricultural research appropriations, to guide the agricultural research to link the demand of agriculture organically, and to promote the transformation of agricultural research achievements and the adoption of agricultural technology.