基于不同目标下的农户耕地流转量预测分析

基于不同假设条件和目标定位，运用实证研究和计量预测分析的方法，构建研究区农地适度经营规模测度数学模型，分阶段对研究区农户耕地流转趋势、流转量、流转率和实现预测流转率需转移的农村隐性剩余劳动力数量进行计量预测，通过预测数据与实际数据的比较，找出假设条件对本地耕地流转产生的影响程度，揭示出研究区耕地流转缓慢的根本原因，以便有针对性地制定应对之策，最大限度提高耕地的生产潜力，促进农业现代化进程。研究结果表明，在阶段2和阶段3，农户耕地可实现较为稳定而高比率的流转；而在阶段1，农户耕地只能在低比率的情况下缓慢流转，耕地流转无论从规模还是利用效率上，都存在着巨大的可流转潜力。结果表明研究区实现农户耕地适度规模经营，需要转移就业的农业劳动力数量巨大、形势紧迫、任务艰巨。

Predictive analysis on the amount of cultivated land transfer based on different targets

Using the method of empirical research and quantitative analysis prediction based on different assumptions and targets， the mathematical model of agricultural land proper scale management was constructed. The cultivated land transfer， circulation amount， turnover rate and the number of rural surplus labor transfer prediction of hidden rate to be transferred in Yuncheng County were forecasted by stages. Then by comparing the predicted data and the actual data， the influence of local assumptions on the cultivated land transfer was found out， the root causes of slow flow of cultivated land in Yuncheng County was revealed， and then the coping strategies were developed in order to maximize the arable land production potential and to promote the process of agricultural modernization. The results showed that， in phase 2 and phase 3， it was possible to realize the stable and high turnover rate of the cultivated land; however， the cultivated land transferred slowly at low ratios in stage 1. There was a huge transfer potential of cultivated land both from the scale and the efficiency. It was concluded that in order to realize the moderate management scale of the arable land of Yuncheng， the number of agricultural labor needed to be transferred was huge， and the situation was urgent， the task was arduous．