达茂旗干旱牧区59年气候变化规律分析

气候变化是影响我国北方干旱牧区草原生态的重要因子,利用达茂旗周边12个气象站点空间插值1954~2012年的气温、降水量等气象资料,采用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendll突变诊断和morlet复变小波分析等方法,对达茂旗气候特征进行了分析。结果表明:近59年来,达茂旗年均气温呈上升趋势,上升速率为0.41℃/(10a),降水变化趋势不明显。通过M-K突变检验,进一步验证了年平均气温及降水的变化趋势,同时,确定了研究区年平均气温在20世纪80年代的增暖是一突变现象,具体是从1986年开始。通过morlet复变小波分析,研究区年平均气温演变过程中存在着3~7a,8~16a,17~32a的3类尺度的周期变化规律;在年降水演变过程中存在3~6a,7~9a,12~22a的3类尺度的周期变化规律。

Analysis on climate change pattern during 59 years in Damao in arid pastoral area of north China

Climate change is an important factor affecting the pasture ecosystem of arid area in the North of China.Based on the meteorological data during 1 954 to 2012 collected from 12 meteorological stations in Damao, the climate characteristics were analyzed with the methods of Linear Trend Estimation,Mann-kendll Mutations and Morlet Complex Wavelet analysis.The result showed that the annual temperature in Damao increased by 0.41℃ every 10 years and the precipitation did not show obvious changing trend in last 59 years.The changing trends of annual temperature and precipitation were verified by M-K method,meanwhile,it was proved that the rising of annual temperature since 1 986 during 1 980s was a mutation phenomenon.There were 3 levels of peri-odic changing patterns both in the evolution of annual temperature （3~7 a,8~1 6 a,17~32 a）and annual pre-cipitation （3~6 a,7~9 a,12~22 a）in the research area by the wavelet analysis.Climate change is an important factor affecting the pasture ecosystem of arid area in the North of China.Based on the meteorological data during 1 954 to 2012 collected from 12 meteorological stations in Damao,the climate characteristics were analyzed with the methods of Linear Trend Estimation,Mann-kendll Mutations and Morlet Complex Wavelet analysis.The re-sult showed that the annual temperature in Damao increased by 0.41 ℃ every 10 years and the precipitation did not show obvious changing trend in last 59 years.The changing trends of annual temperature and precipitation were verified by M-K method,meanwhile,it was proved that the rising of annual temperature since 1 986 during 1 980s was a mutation phenomenon.There were 3 levels of periodic changing patterns both in the evolution of annual temperature （3~7 a,8~1 6 a,17 ~32 a）and annual precipitation （3 ~6 a,7 ~9 a,12 ~22 a）in the re-search area by the wavelet analysis.