基于创新网络社区主题发现和S曲线的技术预测

[目的/意义]从中观视角进行技术预测,对于企业、行业和国家至关重要,建立一套适合方法很有必要.[方法/过程]本文综合应用专利引文网络社区甄别和文本挖掘方法,建立了兼顾网络连接性和孤立节点的最大分割主题分类方法,对技术创新社区进行侦测,并应用S-曲线模型对分离出来的创新社区进行发展趋势预测.[结果/结论]对杂交水稻育种创...

Technology Forecasting Based on Topic Identification of Online Innovation Communities and S-Curve

[Purpose/Significance]It is very important for enterprises,industries and countries to carry out technology prediction from a meso-perspective,so it is necessary to establish a set of suitable methods.[Method/Process]Applying text mining and detection of patent citation network,this study built subject clustering based on biggest fragmenting to detect innovation communities and with s-curve to forecast technology development of innovation communities.[Results/Conclusions]The empirical research on hybrid rice breeding innovation field shows that the proposed method not only enriches the theory and method of technology prediction,but also gives the relevant innovation institutions and national level strategic suggestions from the meso-perspective.