人工神经网络在电力系统短期负荷预测中的应用

根据电力系统短期负荷变化的特性，提出BP模型在实际负荷预测应用中的方法和步骤．对BP网络结构、样本空间、收敛性等作了有针对性的研究．结果表明：多层神经网络应用于电力系统短期负荷预测是可行和有效的．其预报结果比传统的负荷预测方法更准确、经济、效果更好．     

小麦条锈病流行程度趋势预测专家系统雏型

本文运用知识工程语言 M·1构造了一个用于小麦条锈病流行程度趋势预测的专家系统雏型。专家的知识用产生式规则来表示。知识库中的知识规则可相对独立,便于知识库的扩充和完善。     

哈达门国家森林公园游客量动态预测

根据哈达门国家森林公园的票房数据，应用灰色系统理论建立旅游量灰色动态模型。基此，对哈园游客量进行了中短期预测，其预测检验精度为９３．７２。旨在对该园建设、管理等项决策提供科学依据。     

Analysis of a Long-term Experiment with Repeated-measurement Models

Long‐term experiments are a classical case of repeated measurements. Traits are measured on the same experimental unit over many years so that correlations arise between the observations made on the same plot in consecutive years. This paper describes the analysis of a three‐crop‐rotation long‐term experiment. We analysed the yields of the crops and the organic carbon content in the topsoil over 30 consecutive years. Several variance–covariance approaches are discussed and the trait‐specific best fit is interpreted. Mixed models are used to describe the structure of the experiment. Both yields and soil organic carbon show a more or less pronounced variance heterogeneity. Especially for yields, the heterogeneity of cycles and years is dominant. The consideration of correlations results in a better model fit in all cases.     

长期培肥对土壤酶活性的影响

25a的有机肥长期定位试验地中土壤养分和有关酶活性研究表明:耕种和不同的培肥方式均能提高土壤养分的含量,明显地改善土壤的生物活性,其中对土壤脲酶和磷酸酶活性影响明显,多酚氧化酶显著性则较差。对土壤酶活性进行相关分析发现,土壤脲酶和碱性磷酸酶之间呈极显著正相关,且这两种酶与有关主要土壤肥力因子均呈显著或极显著正相关关系。揭示出了土壤脲酶和碱性磷酸酶活性可以用来作为评价土壤肥力的综合指标。     

旱地(土娄)土长期定位施肥土壤剖面硝态氮分布与累积研究

通过12a大田长期定位试验研究了在自然降水条件、冬小麦—大豆轮作(或休闲)种植制度下,0～400cm土娄土剖面硝态氮分布与积累的特点。结果表明,长期单施氮肥,氮的表观利用率特别低,仅0.51%,氮肥配施钾、磷肥,氮的表观利用率为25%～35%,氮磷钾平衡施肥及配施有机肥,氮的表观利用率达到50%;施N肥方式显著影响土壤硝态氮积累和淋移,旱地土娄土长期单施化学氮肥或氮钾、氮磷、氮磷钾肥使土壤NO-3-N大量积累和淋移;氮磷钾与有机肥的配合施用能有效地缓解土壤对硝态氮的积累,提高氮肥利用率。     

Modelling Plant Disease Epidemics

An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight.     

耕作方式与长期定位施肥对雨养农田冬小麦产量的调控效应

为了明确西北黄土高原半湿润偏旱区耕作方式与长期定位施肥对冬小麦产量的调控效应,以设在半湿润偏旱区连续12年的耕作与肥料长期定位试验为平台,采用裂区设计,以传统耕作和免耕耕作为主处理,不施肥(CK)、单施无机氮肥(N)、单施无机磷肥(P)、单施有机肥(M)、无机氮磷肥配施(NP)、有机无机肥配施(NMP)为副处理,栽培制度为1年春玉米-3年冬小麦轮作,研究耕作及施肥措施对冬小麦产量的影响及其在生产年型间的变化关系。结果表明,不同年型及耕作方式均以有机无机配施冬小麦产量最高,有机肥单施高于化肥单施,磷肥单施高于氮肥单施。耕作方式间表现为传统耕作高于免耕耕作,年型间表现为丰水年>平水年>干旱年,耕作和施肥方式的增产效果以干旱年最好,平水年和丰水年差异不显著。有机无机配施与传统耕作结合优化了冬小麦冠层温度、叶绿素相对含量等生理指标,提高了光合速率、气孔导度及蒸腾速率,因而改善了有效穗、穗粒数和千粒重等产量性状而使冬小麦增产。在550 mm左右降水量的陇东旱塬雨养农业区,无论何种耕作方式及生产年型,长期采用有机无机或无机氮磷肥配施均表现出持续提高冬小麦产量的良好作用。因此,有机无机配施结合传统耕作是提高陇东半湿润偏旱区冬小麦产量的最佳耕作栽培模式。     

Improving cereal yield forecasts in Europe – The impact of weather extremes

The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system.     

基于LM算法的BP神经网络的电力负荷短期预测

清代书院课艺总集多为连续出版物，或具有连续出版物的刊行初衷。刊期短则一季，多则一年或数年。经费充足与否，会影响刊期。发表周期多为一年至五年，也有十余年的。用稿率以10%~20%居多，偶见“关系稿”。时文的用稿标准是“清真雅正”。题目多为官师所拟。一般全文刊登，也偶有“论点摘编”。多经润色，并附录评点。有的以袖珍本刊行，有的宣称“翻刻必究”，标出定价，附载广告。稿费已在膏火费中预支，优秀作品可被转载。从本质属性和诸多要素来看，书院课艺总集实开今日“大学学报”、“学术集刊”之先河。