Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.     

都市餐饮企业的净菜需求影响因素分析——以北京市为例

净菜的广泛使用能提高餐饮企业的出餐率,减少其后厨面积、劳动用工和厨余垃圾。基于北京地区708份餐饮企业净菜需求的问卷调查样本,运用垄断竞争市场理论和二元选择模型分析了影响餐饮企业净菜使用行为的具体因素。研究发现,对净菜了解程度不够和净菜价格偏高是制约餐饮企业使用净菜的主要因素,具有不同个体特征和环境特征的餐饮企业选择净菜的倾向性不同。建议在餐饮业大力开展净菜宣传科普工作;大力扶持净菜加工企业和发展相关技术支撑体系以降低净菜价格。     

过表达ZmIBH1-1提高玉米苗期抗旱性

【目的】干旱是严重影响玉米生长发育进程的一个重要因素。挖掘玉米抗旱相关基因,通过转基因功能验证和转录组分析,解析关键基因在响应干旱胁迫过程中的分子调控机制,为抗旱分子育种和遗传改良提供理论依据。【方法】以玉米自交系B104（WT）为背景材料,利用农杆菌介导方法构建过表达ZmIBH1-1转基因株系（ZmIBH1-1-OE）;通过对转基因植株进行草铵膦抗性筛选、标记基因和目的基因PCR检测,以及运用实时荧光定量PCR检测目的基因的表达情况,鉴定阳性植株和株系;以WT和ZmIBH1-1-OE转基因株系为材料,通过干旱处理（20% PEG6000）,进行表型鉴定和耐旱生理生化指标测定,验证ZmIBH1-1的抗旱功能;通过对干旱胁迫下玉米4叶期转录组的比较分析,鉴定出差异表达的基因（differentially expressed genes,DEGs）;结合DAP-seq（DNA affinity purification sequencing）分析,初步确定ZmIBH1-1蛋白直接调控与抗旱相关的下游靶基因,利用基因组可视化软件IGV（integrative genomics viewer）分析ZmIBH1-1蛋白结合候选靶基因的位置,然后通过Dual-Luciferase试验验证ZmIBH1-1蛋白与靶基因的调控关系。【结果】通过玉米遗传转化获得12个转化事件;T₃代中,能同时检测到标记基因Bar和目的基因ZmIBH1-1的植株有458个,实时荧光定量PCR检测结果表明,ZmIBH1-1-OE中ZmIBH1-1的表达量显著高于WT,株系3和株系8表达量最高,将其自交获得T₄代转基因株系用于后续试验。在干旱胁迫条件下,ZmIBH1-1-OE株系存活率、叶片相对含水量、叶绿素含量、可溶性蛋白含量及其生理生化指标（超氧化物歧化酶、过氧化物酶、过氧化氢酶活性）均显著高于WT,说明玉米中过量表达ZmIBH1-1赋予玉米更高的耐旱性。转录组分析结果表明,WT与ZmIBH1-1-OE株系在干旱胁迫下有1 214个差异表达基因;Gene Ontology（GO）功能富集分析结果表明,差异表达基因主要涉及生物过程、细胞组分和分子功能,如在生物过程中主要涉及到光合作用、应激响应、脱水响应等;KEGG富集分析表明,差异表达基因主要参与植物激素信号传导、新陈代谢等过程。结合转录组显著差异表达基因和DAP-Seq分析所得到ZmIBH1-1蛋白的靶基因,初步确定ZmIBH1-1蛋白直接调控与抗旱相关的11个候选靶基因,包括2个钙信号相关基因、3个半胱氨酸代谢相关基因、1个bHLH转录因子、1个应激响应蛋白、1个谷胱甘肽转移酶、1个氧化还原过程蛋白和2个乙烯响应因子;基因组可视化结果显示ZmIBH1-1蛋白可以结合靶基因启动子区;随后通过Dual-Luciferase试验进一步表明,ZmIBH1-1蛋白可以直接作用于11个候选靶基因,其中,ZmIBH1-1蛋白可以促进ZmCa-M、ZmSYCO、ZmbHLH54、ZmGlu-r1、ZmCLPB3和ZmP450-99A2的表达,抑制ZmAGD12、ZmCYS、ZmCYSB、ZmERF-107和ZmEIN3的表达。此外,在干旱胁迫下NAC、WRKY、MYB等转录因子在ZmIBH1-1-OE和WT株系中也存在差异表达。【结论】ZmIBH1-1的过表达可以增强玉米苗期的耐旱性;ZmIBH1-1蛋白通过直接调控乙烯信号通路中的ZmERF-107和ZmEIN3的表达提高玉米的耐旱性;ZmIBH1-1蛋白通过直接调控钙信号相关基因ZmCa-M和ZmAGD12增强玉米的耐旱性;ZmIBH1-1蛋白可能通过间接调控NAC、WRKY、MYB等转录因子响应干旱胁迫。     

数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析

以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况.     

王正非林火蔓延模型改进研究

王正非林火蔓延模型是目前国内比较先进的森林火灾蔓延模型,但是由于林火行为的复杂性,此模型在准确率和普适性方面仍存在许多不足。本文结合已有的成果进一步改进王正非模型,增加了可燃物湿度对林火蔓延速度的影响,改进了林火初始速度的计算方式。针对各种坡度对林火蔓延行为的影响给出了一个计算公式。与改进前相比,改进后的模型使其对林火蔓延情况的预估更为精准。     

Identification of an H1N1 subtype of swine influenza virus and serological analysis

To investigate the epizootic of swine influenza virus(SIV), 60 nasal swabs were collected from a clinical cases of pig farm in Tai'an City, Shandong Province of China in April 2017. SIV was isolated by inoculating into 10-day-old Special Pathogen Free embryonated eggs and the whole genome was sequenced. An H1N1 subtype SIV was isolated and designated as A/swine/Shandong/TA04/2017(H1N1). Phylogenetic analysis showed that apart from the polymerase A(PA) fragment belonging to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 branch, seven genome segments belonged to avian-like H1N1 influenza virus lineage. The cleavage site sequence of the hemagglutinin(HA) protein was PSIQSR↓G, which is a typical molecular biological characteristic. Five potential N-glycosylation sites(N14, N26, N277, N484 and N543) were found in the HA gene. To further investigate the epidemiology of SIV in this farm, the 995 serum samples were assessed with EAH1N1 2009 pandemic H1N1 and H3 N2 antigens. The results showed that the total positive rate was 65.43%. The positive rates of single virus infection detected by EAH1N1, 2009 pdmH1N1 and H3 N2 for serum HI(Hemagglutination inhibition) were 48.35, 30.85 and 7.47%, respectively. The results showed that SIV in Shandong Province has been reassorted in some segments and the SIV-positive rate was high on the SIV outbreak farm. These data provide evidence of an epizootic of SIV.     

Cohort‐specific variation in juvenile coho salmon habitat use

In this study, we examined summer and fall freshwater rearing habitat use by juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the quickly urbanising Big Lake drainage in south‐central Alaska. Habitat use was assessed by regressing fish count data against habitat survey information across thirty study sites using generalised linear mixed models. Habitat associations were examined by age‐0 and age‐1+ cohorts separately, providing an opportunity to compare habitat use across different juvenile coho salmon life stages during freshwater rearing. Regression results indicated that the age‐0 cohorts were strongly associated with shallow, wide stream reaches with in‐stream vegetation, whereas age‐1+ cohorts were associated with deeper stream reaches. Furthermore, associations between fork length and habitat characteristics suggest cohort‐specific habitat use patterns are distinct from those attributable to fish size. Habitat use information generated from this study is being used to guide optimal fish passage restoration planning in the Big Lake drainage. Evidence for habitat use partitioning by age cohort during freshwater juvenile rearing indicates that pooling age cohorts into a single “juvenile” stage for the purposes of watershed management may mask important habitat use dynamics.     

同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜光合光响应模型筛选

为了筛选出最适合黑皮冬瓜Benincasa hispida (Thunb.) Cogn.的光合光响应模型,为其育种提供理论依据,以同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜为试验材料,对8种经典的光合光响应模型适用性进行了比较分析。结果表明：二次多项式能够表现出光抑制情况,但在拟合过程中出现暗呼吸速率为正值、光补偿点为负值及无法解释当光强达到饱和后光合速率快速下降的问题;直角双曲线、非直角双曲线及指数函数Ⅰ、指数函数Ⅱ无法直接求取光饱和点、光补偿点,结合常用的光饱和点的计算方法得到的光饱和点与实测值均存在较大的偏差,且指数函数Ⅱ在计算光饱和点时表现出明显的人为性,也无法拟合光抑制情况,但4种模型拟合得到的光补偿点均与实测值相差不大;指数修正模型因系数β为负值,无法求取四倍体黑皮冬瓜材料的光饱和点和最大净光合速率,且拟合得到的四倍体黑皮冬瓜的光补偿点明显低于实测值;直角双曲线修正模型计算得到的暗呼吸速率及二倍体黑皮冬瓜的光饱和点明显低于实测值,但获得的四倍体及其二倍体的最大净光合速率与实测值最接近,说明其在拟合最大净光合速率上有优势;整体上分段函数计算得到的黑皮冬瓜的各光合参数与实测值最为接近,与实测值的平均相对误差最小,也能很好的拟合发生光抑制部分的光响应曲线。分段函数拟合同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜光合光响应曲线效果较其他模型效果好,分段函数模型为黑皮冬瓜最适合的光合光响应模型。     

中国粮食进口安全综合评价研究——基于超效率DEA模型

在对粮食及粮食进口安全内涵加以界定的基础上,从粮食数量、粮食质量、粮食价格、粮食贸易、国家经济、生态环境6个方面分析中国粮食进口安全的影响因素,基于超效率DEA模型构建中国粮食进口安全评价模型。对1992—2015年中国粮食进口安全状况进行评价,结果表明,1992—2015年中国粮食进口处于安全状态,粮食进口对我国粮食价格安全和生态安全的影响程度较小,对数量安全、质量安全、贸易安全和经济安全的影响程度较大。     

旱地棉花主要促控措施的产量效应分析

本文根据三年试验结果所建立的数学模型,结合4—9月份的不同降雨量条件,对旱地棉花增加种植密度以后各种促控措施(施(?)量、施磷量、打顶日期、化控日期)的合理定量进行了分析。结果认为:早地棉花的高产栽培方案应以种植密度和磷肥的合理定量为基本內容,氮肥、打顶和化控作为依据天气情况和苗情酌情实施的调节措施。最后,依据试验结果,对方案的可行性及优点进行了讨论。