Improving cereal yield forecasts in Europe – The impact of weather extremes

The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system.     

田径内涵嬗变与项目沿革新探索

对奥运会田径比赛项目、奥运历史上曾举行过的项目、田径技术、场地、规则、比赛成绩等方面的演变与发展进行新探索。     

关于地理空间数据整合与持续高效更新存在的问题分析

文章针对当前地理空间数据整合与持续高效更新所存在的问题,在地理空间数据更新中引入了“数据同化”这一思想和概念,对持续高效更新存在的问题及“地理空间数据同化”的涵义和关键技术进行了论述.     

Strong functional stability of soil microbial communities under semiarid Mediterranean conditions and subjected to long-term shifts in baseline precipitation

We investigated the effect of soil microclimate on the structure and functioning of soil microbial communities in a Mediterranean Holm-oak forest subjected to 10 years of partial rain exclusion manipulations, simulating average drought conditions expected in Mediterranean areas for the following decades. We applied a high throughput DNA pyrosequencing technique coupled to parallel measurements of microbial respiration (R_H) and temperature sensitivity of microbial respiration (Q₁₀). Some consistent changes in the structure of bacterial communities suggest a slow process of community shifts parallel to the trend towards oligotrophy in response to long-term droughts. However, the structure of bacterial communities was mainly determined by short-term environmental fluctuations associated with sampling date (winter, spring and summer) rather than long-term (10 years) shifts in baseline precipitation. Moreover, long-term drought did not exert any chronic effect on the functioning of soil microbial communities (R_H and Q₁₀), emphasizing the functional stability of these communities to this long-term but mild shifts in water availability. We hypothesize that the particular conditions of the Mediterranean climate with strong seasonal shifts in both temperature and soil water availability but also characterized by very extreme environmental conditions during summer, was acting as a strong force in community assembling, selecting phenotypes adapted to the semiarid conditions characterizing Mediterranean ecosystems. Relations of climate with the phylogenetic structure and overall diversity of the communities as well as the distribution of the individual responses of different lineages (genera) to climate confirmed our hypotheses, evidencing communities dominated by thermotolerant and drought-tolerant phenotypes.     

Cultivation Influences on Soil Organic Carbon Associated with Texture in Seasonally Frozen Zones

[Objective] This study aimed to examine indicative roles of texture representing soil organic carbon presence and variability subsequent to cultivation under cold temperate climates with seasonal freeze-thaw events.[Method] Three chronosequences were selected for paired comparisons.Soil samples were collected at six depths with a 10 cm increment.Analysis of variance with general linear model and regression was performed for statistical analysis.[Result] In seasonally frozen soils where fragmentation of macroaggregates was stimulated,soil organic carbon level was positively associated with clay ＋ silt proportion due to a wider textural range,better than sole clay content.Exponential function better fitted the experimental data to present progressively increased effectiveness of clay ＋ silt content in maintaining carbon.Clay content explained 12％-41％ and 14％-43％ of variation via linear and exponential functions,respectively.Accordingly,clay ＋ silt content explained 47％-65％ and 46％-70％.[Conclusion] Texture reflected soil organic carbon occurrence as consequences of reclamation.For seasonally frozen soils with wider textural ranges,it is robust to adapt clay ＋ silt content as dependent variable and exponential function.The generated algorithms provided an available pathway to estimate soil organic carbon losses following cultivation and to evaluate soil fertility.     

基于信息抽取的食品安全事件自动问答系统方法研究

针对从海量食品安全事件新闻报道中很难抽取出所需答案的问题,以食品安全事件语料库为研究对象,提出了一种基于信息抽取技术的自动问答系统。首先,利用深度学习模型TextCNN对用户输入的问题进行分类,得到其所属类型。其次,对于输入问题,借助Lucene搜索引擎找到其最佳匹配文档。再次,根据输入问题的类型,从食品安全事件数据库（采用信息抽取技术自动提取的一个结构化数据库）中筛选出该文档所包含的答案候选句集合。最后,利用深度学习模型Bi LSTM及基于答案候选句上下文的特征提取方法构建一个答案抽取模型,该模型能从给定的答案候选句集合中提取出最终答案。为检查基于食品安全事件数据库的答案候选句筛选方式及基于答案候选句上下文的特征提取方式对整个自动问答系统性能的影响,进行了多种比较实验,结果表明含有基于食品安全事件数据库的答案候选句筛选方式和基于答案候选句上下文的特征提取方式的问答系统表现最佳,其回答准确率达到44%。这相比于传统的问答系统,具有明显的优势。     

近55年来河西地区干旱时空演变特征及其与ENSO事件的关系

根据河西地区14个气象站点1961-2015年的逐月气象观测资料,基于SPEI指数采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、反距离加权插值(IDW)等方法分析了近55年来河西地区年代际、四季干旱及空间变化特征,并探讨了ENSO 事件与该区干旱的关系。结果表明：在年代际变化上,自20世纪90年代以来河西地区干旱次数增多、干旱程度加重。季节时间变化上,河西地区春、夏、秋季均呈干旱化趋势,春季干旱化趋势最为突出,夏季次之,冬季略呈变湿趋势。空间变化上,整个河西地区春季均呈干旱化趋势,而且大部分地区的春旱趋势极为显著,其中春旱趋势最显著的地方是金塔;冬季整个研究区趋于湿润化。各季节干旱高频区分别集中在：春季在金塔、民勤地区,夏季在河西西北部,秋季在河西中东部及西部的安西—玉门一线,冬季在101°E以西的河西地区。河西地区秋季SPEI与SSTA指数的相关性最为显著,春季次之,夏季最弱。ENSO事件发生强度与河西地区SPEI影响因子的多项式拟合关系表明,ENSO事件强度对温度的影响高于降水;其中在ENSO暖事件(厄尔尼诺事件)发生年份,气温有明显的上升趋势;在ENSO冷事件(拉尼娜事件)发生年份,少数年份降水有所增加,对气温的影响较弱。     

冻融交替对土壤氮素转化及相关微生物学特性的影响

土壤冻融是发生在中、高纬度及高海拔地区的一种常见的自然现象。冻融作用通过影响土壤物理性质及生物学性状进而对土壤氮素转化过程产生重要影响,但目前关于冻融作用对土壤氮素转化过程影响的研究结果还不尽一致,对于冻融作用下土壤微生物学特性的研究相对较少。本文着重论述了冻融作用对土壤氮素转化过程(有效氮素含量变化、氮素净矿化速率、氮素损失途径等)的影响,并对冻融作用下土壤微生物生理和代谢特性进行了归纳和总结,简要指出目前研究过程中存在的问题,并对未来研究方向提出展望。     

用ENSO事件的特征进行褐飞虱发生程度长期预测的研究

根据江西省泰和县1991～2007年褐飞虱发生程度的资料及1990～2007年ENSO事件的特征值资料,采用相关分析和逐步回归分析方法,建立了泰和县褐飞虱发生程度(Y)的长期预测模型:Y′=-0.20790X1+0.22877X2+4.05618,其中X1为上一年厄尔尼诺的强度,X2为当年3月南方涛动指数(Southern Oscillation Index,SOI)。该模型1991～2007年的历史拟合符合率为82.35%,2008～2009年的预报准确率为100%,并预测2010年泰和县褐飞虱发生程度为中等(3.11级)。     

宁夏近50年极端强降水事件的时空变化分析

[目的]研究近50年宁夏极端强降水事件的时空变化特征。[方法]根据宁夏20个站点1961～2010年的逐日降水资料,采用百分位的方法定义宁夏极端降水事件的阈值,选取极端降水事件的降水量、频率、强度等多个指标,并利用线性回归和M-K非参数统计检验法分析了宁夏极端降水事件的时空分布及变化趋势特征。[结果]采用百分位法确定的宁夏近50年平均极端降水阈值大致呈现从南到北逐渐减小的分布状况,阈值较大的区域主要位于宁夏海原以南的固原地区,较小的区域位于宁夏的同心、盐池以北的大部地区,与宁夏气候平均年降水量的分布极为相似;近50年宁夏大部分地区的极端降水频率、极端降水量以减少趋势为主,而极端降水强度呈增大趋势。对麻黄山、六盘山2个典型站的极端降水事件分析发现,麻黄山极端降水频率与极端降水量呈减少趋势,极端降水强度为增大趋势,六盘山极端降水频率、极端降水量与极端降水强度均呈减少趋势;麻黄山年极端降水频率在1994年之前呈减少趋势,1994年以后呈增加趋势,突变发生在2003年;年极端降水强度1984年以来为增加趋势,突变时间为1984年,六盘山从1978年至今为减小趋势。[结论]该研究为宁夏气候突变分析提供理论依据。