A look into the past,present and future potential distributions of Talinopsis frutescens,a North American endemic lineage closely related to Cactaceae

Talinopsis frutescens(Anacampserotaceae,a family that is close related to Cactaceae)is a succulent species endemic to North America.The aim of this study was to explore,using Ecological Niche Modeling(ENM),changes in potential distribution ranges considering different climate scenarios:past conditions during the Last Inter Glacial(LIG)and the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),the present and projections for 2070(RCP 2.6 to 8.5).A pattern of contraction is observed during the LIG,which agrees with other studies focused in species from arid environments.This pattern was followed by a migration towards the south during the LGM and a possible recent expansion to the north as is observed in the present scenario.All future projections show the same contraction and fragmentation patterns,resulting in three discontinuous areas:the northern part of the Chihuahuan Desert,the southern-central part of the Mexican Plateau,and the smallest one in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley.Our projections for future scenarios agree with other studies and support that global climate change tends to alter the current distribution of arid environment species.