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1.
A. V. TYLER 《Fisheries Oceanography》1992,1(1):97-107
In many cases when ecologists want to investigate a process, they often look for the best system on which to conduct the research, "best" meaning that the possibility of discovering mechanisms is optimized or made easier in some way. In fisheries we do it backwards. The species and system are given to us by economics, and we then fly in the face of the difficult circumstances to find mechanisms that are elusive anyway. These difficult circumstances constitute in some sense the first set of statistical problems. Using examples from the Northeast Pacific, I review the characteristics of cohort time series that make some species more tractable; propose a conscious process of conceptualization to assist in the formulation of clear, germane hypotheses; highlight the contrast between modeling in the sense of statistical fitting versus simulation models of processes; explore how the first round of models integrates with the second round of planning for new data collection at sea and in the lab; and, finally, propose how to judge success in terms of an operational approach. 相似文献
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A. Bhogal A. Bhogal M.A. Shepherd D.J. Hatch L. Brown S.C. Jarvis 《Soil Use and Management》2001,17(3):163-172
Abstract. The ability of two nitrogen cycle models, of contrasting complexity, to predict N mineralization from a range of grassland soils in the UK, was evaluated. These were NCYCLE, a simple mass balance model of the N cycle in UK grasslands, and CENTURY, a more complex model simulating long-term C, N, P & S dynamics in grassland ecosystems. The models were tested using field measurements of net N mineralization from a range of grassland soils (differing in soil type, history & management practice), obtained over a 2 year period using a soil core incubation technique. This method was considered to measure the total net release of mineral N from the soil organic matter over a specified time, including N which may have been recycled several times. NCYCLE consistently under-estimated mineralization rates at all sites. By contrast, there was some correlation between CENTURY predictions of net N mineralization and field measurements. This may have reflected the different abilities of the two models to simulate N recycling. Neither model, however, was able to predict adequately the effect of cultivation and reseeding on net N mineralization. 相似文献
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RESEARCHSITELivingfue1splayedanimportantroleinheatconcentrationactionorinheatsourceofforestfire.Whenitshumiditydecreasestoacertainlevel,theybecameaheatsourcewhenthelivingcombustibl-eswerecombinedwithfire.Thus,itwasessentialhowtodeterminethemoisturesituationandthefOrestfiredangerdegreetobeforecastedaccurately.Thedynamicmodelspresentedinthispaperwereusefultosolvethisproblem.Everyyear,-therewerealotofforestfires,especiallythefireoccurrenceinDaxinganMountains,inthespringofl987.Itwasveryimpo… 相似文献
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Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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The ability to predict species occurrences quickly is often crucial for managers and conservation biologists with limited
time and funds. We used measured associations with landscape patterns to build accurate predictive habitat models that were
quickly and easily applied (i.e., required no additional data collection in the field to make predictions). We used classification
trees (a nonparametric alternative to discriminant function analysis, logistic regression, and other generalized linear models)
to model nesting habitat of red-naped sapsuckers (Sphyrapicus nuchalis), northern flickers (Colaptes auratus),tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), and mountain chickadees (Parus gambeli) in the Uinta Mountains of northeastern Utah, USA. We then tested the predictive capability of the models with independent
data collected in the field the following year. The models built for the northern flicker, red-naped sapsucker, and tree swallow
were relatively accurate (84%, 80%, and 75% nests correctly classified,respectively)compared to the models for the mountain
chickadee (50% nests correctly classified). All four models were more selective than a null model that predicted habitat based
solely on a gross association with aspen forests. We conclude that associations with landscape patterns can be used to build
relatively accurate, easy to use, predictive models for some species. Our results stress, however, that both selecting the
proper scale at which to assess landscape associations and empirically testing the models derived from those associations
are crucial for building useful predictive models.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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针对设施园艺作业场景下电驱移动平台的低速大扭矩牵引作业需求,该研究设计了一种减速内转子轴向磁通轮毂电机,建立电机的电磁有限元模型并分析其电磁和损耗特性。考虑到绕组电阻率受温度变化影响,构建基于热网络法的轮毂电机磁-热耦合改进模型。与台架试验结果相比,基于改进模型获得的转矩预测值较传统模型的精度提高了5.33%,验证了模型的正确性。利用改进模型分析了温度和相电流对电机转矩特性的影响,仿真结果表明,输出转矩随电机温度增加而降低;在0~20 A,电机平均输出转矩与相电流呈线性关系。试验结果表明,轮毂电机功率随转速增加而增大,峰值功率可达4.59 kW,而转矩基本保持恒定;在转速450~900 r/min、转矩300~600 N·m时,电机效率高达93.2%。研究结果可为轴向磁通电机初步设计与多场耦合影响下电机性能分析提供思路。 相似文献