浅谈几种概率分布之间的相互关系

本文简述了几种常用的概率分布之间的相互关系     

双子叶子叶出土植物根-茎转变区的特征和分类

利用偏光显微镜镜检等手段,研究了14科22个属、种的双子叶植物的根-茎转变区,提出较全面的有关概念并发现数种异于一般的转变方式,根据该区的存在部位和长短以及结构特点,提出几套新的分类法:1.根型、根-下胚轴和下胚轴型;2.剧变型及缓变型;3.正常型和异常型。     

Modelling land cover transitions: A solution to the problem of spatial dependence in data

Raster-based spatial land cover transition models (LCTMs) are widely used in landscape ecology. However, many LCTMs do not account for spatial dependence of the input data, which may artificially fragment the output spatial configuration. We demonstrate the consequences of ignoring spatial dependence, thus assigning probabilities randomly in space, using a simple LCTM. We ran the model from four different initial conditions with distinct spatial configurations and results indicated that, after 20 simulation steps, all of them converged towards the spatial configuration of the random data set. From an ecological perspective this is a serious problem because ecological data often exhibit distinct spatial configuration related to ecological processes. As a solution, we propose an approach (region approach) that accounts for spatial dependence of LCTM input data. Underlying spatial dependence was used to apply spatial bias to probability assignment within the model. As a case study we applied a region approach to a Vegetation Transition Model (VTM); a semi-Markovian model that simulates forest succession. The VTM was applied to approximately 500,000 ha of boreal forest in Ontario, at 1 ha pixel resolution. When the stochastic transition algorithms were applied without accounting for spatial dependence, spatial configuration of the output data became progressively more fragmented. When the VTM was applied using the region approach to account for spatial dependence output fragmentation was reduced. Accounting for spatial dependence in transition models will create more reliable output for analyzing spatial patterns and relating those patterns to ecological processes.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

金安桥水电站初次蓄水对导流洞稳定性影响的计算分析

金安桥水电站下闸蓄水后，陡升的库水位将对导流洞结构稳定造成不利影响。为保障堵头封堵前的导流洞结构稳定性，运用三维弹塑性损伤有限元，在模拟进水口边坡及导流洞开挖支护的基础上，计算汛前下闸水位时的岩体渗流场，对导流洞围岩和衬砌在岩体渗流作用下的结构稳定性进行复核分析。分析结果表明，导流洞的围岩稳定性在蓄水后仍有保障，衬砌结构受力较小，现有环向配筋满足结构内力要求，但在进水口变截面和导流洞变截面部位沿水流方向的拉应力较大，使得衬砌出现开裂。进一步分析表明，上述区域的开裂范围有限，对整体衬砌结构影响较小。     

Increasing selenium supply during the close-up dry period improves nutrient metabolism and attenuates inflammatory response after calving in dairy cows

The objective of this study was to investigate whether feeding selenium (Se)-replete cows a Se-yeast supplement in late pregnancy affects nutrient metabolism and inflammatory response during the periparturient period. Twenty cows were randomly assigned to two groups with 10 cows each. Cows in one group received Se-yeast at 0.3 mg Se/kg DM during the last 4 weeks before calving in addition to fed a TMR containing supplemented sodium selenite at 0.3 mg Se/kg DM (Se-yeast), while cows in another group were only fed a TMR containing supplemented sodium selenite at 0.3 mg Se/kg DM (Control). Blood samples were collected and analyzed for nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA), β-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA), glucose, insulin, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, serum amyloid A (SAA), haptoglobin (Hp), and albumin. In control cows, plasma NEFA, IL-1β, IL-6, SAA, and Hp levels increased after calving, but glucose, insulin, and albumin levels decreased after parturition. Se-yeast supplemental cows had lower postpartum concentrations of NEFA, TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6, SAA, and Hp, and higher postpartum levels of glucose, insulin, and albumin compared with control cows. The results indicate that feeding Se-replete cows a Se-yeast supplement in late pregnancy improves nutrient metabolism and attenuates the inflammatory response after calving.     

线性红利界下带干扰风险模型的破产概率

考虑到保险公司在实际经营中收益所具有的不确定性和分红策略，建立一类具有线性红利界和带随机扰动的双复合Poisson风险模型，利用鞅方法给出模型关于破产概率的一个定理及上界．     

美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。     

基于动态平衡视角下现代足球阵型演变的沿革与变迁

拟在动态平衡的视角下对现代足球阵型的演变历程进行梳理与整合，希望对阵型之间的关联及其对足球运动发展的影响提供见解，对阵型演变的不同阶段进行探讨，探寻足球攻守平衡与不同阵型的嬗变关系，同时也为推动未来足球阵型演变对战术打法的影响研究提供参考依据。采用文献资料、系统分析、专家访谈和逻辑分析等方法，对现有的足球阵型发展的概况进行分析之后，认为现代足球阵型的演变历程不断交替出现攻守的平衡与不平衡，正是交替出现的状况促进了阵型的改变，进而影响了阵型的发展。当阵型的发展过程中出现攻守平衡时，就有其它后来者对该阵型进行学习、模仿、改进、提高。当阵型的发展过程中出现攻守不平衡，攻强于守或者守强于攻时，就会促进阵型的演变向攻守平衡的方向发展，因此就会出现阵型的发展处于不平衡-平衡-不平衡-再到平衡的态势，从而形成比赛阵型发展本身的稳定与不稳定状态交替出现。研究认为，世界足球阵型演变的过程是一种动态的、不断发展的、维持某种平衡与稳定的、平衡和不平衡交替运动的情况，即动态平衡的状态。提出将现代足球阵型演变的过程分为不同的阶段，每一个阶段内，都分别出现攻守平衡与攻守不平衡的状态，而这种平衡与不平衡的存在与区别、斗争与转化正是足球阵型演变与发展的规律。     

带常利率和相依结构更新风险模型的破产概率

研究了一类具有常利率及相依结构的Sparre Andersen模型, 模型中假设理赔间隔时间决定下一次理赔额的分布情况. 对一般分布情形, 利用推广后的调节系数方程与递归更新技巧, 得到了此模型的最终破产概率上界的估计. 最后以理赔额和理赔间隔时间都服从指数分布的情况下的实例分析来说明该模型的有效性.     

Low potassium diets with different levels of calcium in comparison with different anionic diets fed to prepartum dairy cows: Effects on sorting behaviour,total tract digestibility,energy metabolism,oxidative status and hormonal response

This study investigated the effects of low potassium diets with different levels of Ca compared to two diets low in dietary cation–anion difference (DCAD) fed prepartum as a strategy to prevent hypocalcemia on sorting behaviour, total tract digestibility, oxidative status and energy and protein metabolism of transition cows. Forty-eight pregnant dairy cows were assigned to 4 treatment groups: Low Ca, low K (LCLK), High Ca, low K (HCLK), Supplementation with anionic mineral mixture (AMS) supplementation with SoyChlor (CAS). After parturition, all animals were fed a standard postpartum diet. Data were collected until 21 DIM. Prepartum urinary pH was significantly reduced by the low DCAD diets, while postpartum Ca homeostasis was affected by the HCLK ration. Feeding AMS induced sorting against particles <1.18 mm in favour of particles >19 mm prepartum. In contrast, cows fed CAS showed an increase in selective consumption of fine particles and sorted against longer particles similar to the HCLK and LCLK groups. Postpartum sorting activity was not affected by the dietary treatments. After calving, apparent digestibility of NDF was significantly reduced in the HCLK group. Prepartum, we observed effects on serum concentrations of non-esterified fatty acids were higher and insulin sensitivity was lower in the AMS group. Blood urea nitrogen (BUN) was decreased in cows fed the CAS ration. Postpartum, we found serum protein to be decreased with the low DCAD diets while BUN was decreased in the CAS group. The low DCAD rations increased prepartum serum malondialdehyde concentrations, while postpartum total antioxidant capacity was lower in the HCLK and the AMS group. From these data, we conclude that AMS decreased prepartum intake due to compromised palatability. Intermediate protein metabolism was affected by the low DCAD diets, while parameters of oxidative stress were probably affected by acid–base balance and Ca homeostasis.