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1.
Jian-zhai WU Jing ZHANG Zhang-ming GE Li-wei XING Shu-qing HAN Chen SHEN Fan-tao KONG 《农业科学学报》2021,20(1):289-299
Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period. 相似文献
2.
以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况. 相似文献
3.
为探明长江中游玉米籽粒机械直收适宜品种与配套农艺措施,2018—2019年选用不同玉米品种,测定不同机收时间下玉米关键农艺性状、产量及机收质量指标。结果表明,收获时间对春玉米机收产量与机收质量均有显著影响。延迟1周收获后籽粒容重显著增加,机收产量显著提高,2年平均提高9.72%;而延迟2周收获则有降低机收产量的趋势。2年收获时杂质率总体≤3%,而机收籽粒破碎率与损失率均>5%,是该区域春玉米籽粒机收面临的主要问题。籽粒厚度、籽粒含水率和百粒重是影响机收籽粒破碎率的关键性状,三者与机收籽粒破碎率均呈显著的倒二次曲线关系;玉米的倒伏率、穗位高和重心高度是影响机收损失率的关键性状,倒伏率与机收损失率呈显著正相关,而穗位高和重心高度与机收损失率均呈显著的二次曲线关系。延迟收获能显著降低籽粒含水量,从而降低籽粒破碎率,但继续延迟收获有增加倒伏的风险。综上,长江中游春玉米成熟后适时延迟7~10 d收获,可有效降低籽粒含水量与机收籽粒破碎率,提高玉米籽粒机收产量。 相似文献
4.
5.
Emily Corey Tommi Linnansaari Stephen J. Dugdale Normand Bergeron Jean-François Gendron Michel Lapointe Richard A. Cunjak 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2020,29(1):50-62
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme thermal events in rivers. The Little Southwest Miramichi River (LSWM) and the Ouelle River (OR) are two Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) rivers located in eastern Canada, where in recent years, water temperatures have exceeded known thermal limits (~23°C). Once temperature surpasses this threshold, juvenile salmon exploit thermal heterogeneity to behaviourally thermoregulate, forming aggregations in coolwater refuges. This study aimed to determine whether the behavioural thermoregulation response is universal across rivers, arising from common thermal cues. We detailed the temperature and discharge patterns of two geographically distinct rivers from 2010 to 2012 and compared these with aggregation onset temperature. PIT telemetry and snorkelling were used to confirm the presence of aggregations. Mean daily maximum temperature in 2010 was significantly greater in the OR versus the LSWM (p = 0.005), but not in other years (p = 0.090–0.353). Aggregations occurred on 14 and 9 occasions in the OR and LSWM respectively. Temperature at onset of aggregation was significantly greater in the OR (Tonset = 28.3°C) than in the LSWM (Tonset = 27.3°C; p = 0.049). Logistic regression models varied by river and were able to predict the probability of aggregation based on the preceding number of hours >23°C (R2 = 0.61 & 0.65; P50 = 27.4°C & 28.9°C; in the OR and LSWM respectively). These results imply the preceding local thermal regime may influence behaviour and indicate a degree of phenotypic plasticity, illustrating a need for localised management strategies. 相似文献
6.
以亚麻籽油、大豆油、菜籽油与葵花籽油为原料,在不同温度条件下氧化并测定其不同时间的同步荧光光谱,分析同步荧光光谱及荧光物质变化情况。结果表明,4种植物油不同温度下的同步荧光光谱峰变化主要集中在300~415 nm内,且随着加热时间的延长存在波动现象;在50℃和150℃加热氧化条件下,300,330,375,415 nm这4个峰都存在明显的波动现象;二维相关分析表明,这4个峰的荧光强度变化速率不同,不同油变化差异较大;同种油在不同温度下,4个峰的波动情况、相互关系、变化速率均有明显差异。这些峰的变化与油脂氧化过程中荧光物质和油脂氧化程度的变化有关,可以利用同步荧光光谱的变化特性作为监控油脂氧化的依据。 相似文献
7.
电驱离心式压缩机组联轴器处的对中会影响机组的运行稳定性,因此需要在现场进行校验,并修正压缩机生产厂家的冷态对中数据,以确保冷态对中的准确性,提升对中质量。根据离心式压缩机组的结构及运行特点,分析机组冷态与正常运行状态时的差异,得出冷态对中的影响因素,并提出了计算和修正冷态对中数据的公式。从热膨胀、轴上升高度、顶升高度、工具挠度4个方面分析其对离心式压缩机组冷态对中的影响。在计算材料热膨胀数值的过程中,发现其具有明显的线性关系,据此简化了热膨胀数值的计算方式。通过状态监测工具得出转子轴中心的上升高度,并对冷态对中过程中的转子顶升高度进行修正,最终得出修正的冷态对中数据,对指导压缩机组开展冷态对中具有一定借鉴意义。 相似文献
8.
Catherine Bradley Suresh Andrew Sethi Joshua Ashline Jonathon Gerken 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2017,26(4):695-706
In this study, we examined summer and fall freshwater rearing habitat use by juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the quickly urbanising Big Lake drainage in south‐central Alaska. Habitat use was assessed by regressing fish count data against habitat survey information across thirty study sites using generalised linear mixed models. Habitat associations were examined by age‐0 and age‐1+ cohorts separately, providing an opportunity to compare habitat use across different juvenile coho salmon life stages during freshwater rearing. Regression results indicated that the age‐0 cohorts were strongly associated with shallow, wide stream reaches with in‐stream vegetation, whereas age‐1+ cohorts were associated with deeper stream reaches. Furthermore, associations between fork length and habitat characteristics suggest cohort‐specific habitat use patterns are distinct from those attributable to fish size. Habitat use information generated from this study is being used to guide optimal fish passage restoration planning in the Big Lake drainage. Evidence for habitat use partitioning by age cohort during freshwater juvenile rearing indicates that pooling age cohorts into a single “juvenile” stage for the purposes of watershed management may mask important habitat use dynamics. 相似文献
9.
为了筛选出最适合黑皮冬瓜Benincasa hispida (Thunb.) Cogn.的光合光响应模型,为其育种提供理论依据,以同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜为试验材料,对8种经典的光合光响应模型适用性进行了比较分析。结果表明:二次多项式能够表现出光抑制情况,但在拟合过程中出现暗呼吸速率为正值、光补偿点为负值及无法解释当光强达到饱和后光合速率快速下降的问题;直角双曲线、非直角双曲线及指数函数Ⅰ、指数函数Ⅱ无法直接求取光饱和点、光补偿点,结合常用的光饱和点的计算方法得到的光饱和点与实测值均存在较大的偏差,且指数函数Ⅱ在计算光饱和点时表现出明显的人为性,也无法拟合光抑制情况,但4种模型拟合得到的光补偿点均与实测值相差不大;指数修正模型因系数β为负值,无法求取四倍体黑皮冬瓜材料的光饱和点和最大净光合速率,且拟合得到的四倍体黑皮冬瓜的光补偿点明显低于实测值;直角双曲线修正模型计算得到的暗呼吸速率及二倍体黑皮冬瓜的光饱和点明显低于实测值,但获得的四倍体及其二倍体的最大净光合速率与实测值最接近,说明其在拟合最大净光合速率上有优势;整体上分段函数计算得到的黑皮冬瓜的各光合参数与实测值最为接近,与实测值的平均相对误差最小,也能很好的拟合发生光抑制部分的光响应曲线。分段函数拟合同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜光合光响应曲线效果较其他模型效果好,分段函数模型为黑皮冬瓜最适合的光合光响应模型。 相似文献
10.