Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.     

基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。     

云南不同气候带农业气候资源变化特征研究

为分析全省平均以及各气候带光能、热量、水分资源的时空变化特征,使用云南115站及6个气候带代表站1961—2018年的气候要素计算各地农业气候资源统计量。结果表明,光能资源变化以减少趋势为主,出现显著突变,各气候带太阳辐射变化可能会引起云南太阳辐射高低值中心发生变化,2009年以来辐射明显增加可能会导致太阳辐射出现新的变化趋势和突变点;热量资源一致显著增加,喜凉及喜温作物的活动积温、积温持续时间及无霜期长度均显著增加,并且呈现初日提前、终日推后的趋势,对作物生长有利;水分资源总体呈现减少趋势,尤其21世纪以来下降趋势明显,亚热带地区暖干化现象突出,干旱风险等级较高。     

圈养华南虎血液生化指标正常参考值初步研究

以国内部分圈养的健康华南虎Panthera tigris amoyensis作为研究对象,通过收集华南虎血液生化报告和采集华南虎血液样本检测建立样本数据,血样检测采用自动血液生化分析仪干式试剂片生化技术测定,测定血液生化指标包括血糖(GLU)、总蛋白(TP)、总胆固醇(CHOL)、总胆红素(TBIL)、肌酐(CREA)等。得到华南虎血液生化共38项指标的正常参考值范围(95%概率),其中几项主要指标正常值范围如下:GLU(2.82-11.55)mmol/L、TP(56.58-85.93)g/L、CHOL(3.32-8.66)μmol/L、TBIL(0-5.30)μmol/L、CREA(52-349)μmol/L等。统计结果显示,雌雄华南虎间血液生化指标的部分项目有差异(P <0.05),幼龄组和成年组间各项生化指标差异不显著(P >0.05),与其他虎亚种相关血液生化报道的生化指标部分有差别。华南虎血液生化指标正常参考值范围不同于其他虎亚种,建立华南虎血液生化指标正常值对华南虎的饲养管理、疾病诊治预防和保育繁殖研究工作有重要作用。     

Sacred sites as habitats of culturally important plant species in an Indian megacity

Cultural ecosystem services related to urban green spaces contribute significantly to liveable cities. While previous studies highlight the intersection of cultural ecosystem services with societal values, spiritual or religious values associated with urban nature have received less attention. In India, as in other parts of the world, sacred sites are known for their biological richness, but analyses from urban sacred sites are largely missing. Based on a stratified random sampling approach, we analysed the cultivated and wild plant species assemblages of 69 sacred sites in the megacity of Bengaluru, India, in relation to biological and cultural features, and parameters related to the urban matrix and type of sacred sites (temple vs. katte). Unlike other urban studies, we found a dominance of native species in the cultivated and spontaneous species pools (121 species in total), with Ficus religiosa and Azadirachta indica as most frequently planted species. Culturally relevant species prevailed in the species pool (89%), with overlaps between religious (36%), medicinal (50%) and ornamental (62%) plants; only 11% of species were weeds. Urban matrix parameters (age of development, housing density) and size and type of sacred sites were related to differences in species assemblages. We identified key species for different classes of age and housing density, and for types of sacred sites. Our study demonstrates that urban sacred sites have an important potential in harbouring both native and culturally significant species that can support urban livelihoods in developing countries by a range of cultural and provisioning ecosystem services, including medicinal uses. As such sites are conserved by communities for spiritual or cultural beliefs, local biodiversity can be enhanced, e.g. by adapting management practices through community participation. This would strengthen the important contribution of sacred sites within the green infrastructure of rapidly growing megacities.     

Studies on Tomato Seedling Quality Indices Under Simulated Shipping and Storage Conditions

Indices of the tomato seedling quality maintenance level after production before field planting were studied through simulated experiments, small--scale operation, indoor analyses and measurements, and field observation. The results showed that under simulated shipping and storage conditions, seedling quality change following different durations (days) of shipping and storage was correlated significantly or even very significantly with certain physiological and morphological indices. With various measured indices following different periods of shipping and storage treatment subjected to multinomial successive regressive correlation analysis, the principal factors influencing seedling quality maintenance level are identified to be chlorophyll content→dry short weight→ leaf freshness index in order of their importance. Significance analysis with multinomial fitted equation indicated that correlations between any one of above three factors and the growth index after field planting reached very significant difference level.     

不同周龄大耳白兔血液生理生化指标的测定

为了明确大耳白兔中国兽药监察所封闭群的生物学特性，对其血液生理生化指标进行了测定。选5、10及13周龄的雄兔和雌兔。空腹采血测定红细胞、白细胞等16项血液生理指标和血糖、总蛋白等16项生化指标。10周龄的红细胞数、白细胞数、红细胞压积和平均红细胞血红蛋白含量高于5周龄和13周龄，雌雄间血液生理指标无明显差异，血清丙氨酸转氨酶含量随着周龄的增加而升高，碱性磷酸则随着周龄的增加而下降。与日本大耳白兔相比，主要血液生理指标比较接近，丙氨酸转氨酸、白蛋白、尿素氮、直接胆红素等血液生化指标相近，其他指标有所不同。测定结果表明，该封闭群具有不同于日本大耳白兔（Slc:JW/CSK)的生物学特性。     

两株新分离的APMV-I毒株感染SPF鸡的超微病理变化

将APMV-I鹅源分离株YG97鸡源分离株Y98和NDV强毒株F48E8感染SPF鸡，运用透射电镜观察该2株病毒分离株对机体细胞的影响，结果显示3株禽副黏病毒均引起机体肝、胰、脾、肾、心、胃、十二指肠和直肠等实质器官组织细胞的超微病变，如黏膜上皮细胞多处受损，表面微绒毛脱落；实质细胞核固缩、凝聚、凹陷、核多形性，线粒体嵴断裂、空泡样变、膜溶解，粗面内质网扩张、囊泡变，细胞浆的囊泡内及细胞浆内存在有囊膜的成熟病毒粒子等，但YG97和Y98对不同实质器官的组织细胞超微病变程度不一：胃、肝、胰、脾、肾超微病变比心脏的超微病变严重。电镜观察结果还表明：3株禽副黏病毒引起宿主细胞的超微病变有2种形式：坏死性病变和凋亡性病变。     

主体意识的归隐 显现与本质寻求——意识形态的质性裂变

随着意识形态理论的发展,意识形态的所指已经发生了实质性的功能性裂变。它的发生逻辑隐含了主体意识的无意识的归隐与自为的显现,而主体意识与意识形态的本质寻求无论是隐匿性的暗示或遮蔽性的深层所指,都与意识形态的功能性机制及社会历史性的存在状况具备极强的内在一致性。     

利用高等数学推导边际分析在经济学中的应用

本文从高等数学的基本理论导数的概念出发，引出了经济管理学中重要的概念边际函数，通过介绍经济科学中常用的函数及大量的实例，探讨了高等数学在经济管理学中的应用，给出了解决这些问题的一般方法。