基于MaxEnt模型的滑坡易发性评价--以攀枝花市为例

为了客观评价滑坡影响因子的贡献度和构建滑坡预测模型,以滑坡灾害发生较多的攀枝花市为研究区,通过筛选后选取高程、坡度、坡向、土地利用类型、归一化植被指数(NDVI)和人口密度6项因子作为滑坡易发性的评价指标;基于最大熵(maxEnt)模型和ArcGIS空间分析模块对研究区滑坡易发性进行了定量预测和分析研究。结果表明:maxEnt模型在研究区滑坡易发性研究方面的适用性等级为优秀(AUC=0.96),Kappa系数为0.86;随机选取75%的数据集用于训练模型,其余25%用于验证模型,得到的AUC值最稳定且精度最高,模型预测可信度最高;研究区高易发生和极易发生区分别占总面积的2.57%,0.80%,主要分布在人口比较密集的东部和西部地区,部分沿着金沙江、雅砻江、巴关河、安宁河和主要道路两侧发育;植被覆盖度和坡度是决定研究区滑坡易发性空间分布格局最重要的环境影响因子。     

Spatial distribution and habitat selection of culicoides imicola: The potential vector of bluetongue virus in Tunisia

The increasing threat of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) represents a great challenge to those who manage public and animal health. Determining the spatial distribution of arthropod vector species is an essential step in studying the risk of transmission of a vector-borne pathogen (VBP) and in estimating risk levels of VBD. Risk maps allow better targeting surveillance and help in designing control measures. We aimed to study the geographical distribution of Culicoides imicola, the main competent vector of Bluetongue virus (BTV) in sheep in Tunisia. Fifty-three records covering the whole distribution range of C.imicola in Tunisia were obtained during a 2-year field entomological survey (August 2017 – January 2018 and August 2018 – January 2019). The ecological niche of C. imicola is described using ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) and Mahalanobis distances factor analysis (MADIFA). An environmental suitability map (ESM) was developed by MaxEnt software to map the optimal habitat under the current climate background. The MaxEnt model was highly accurate with a statistically significant area under curve (AUC) value of 0.941. The location of the potential distribution of C. imicola is predicted in specified regions of Tunisia. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as surveillance and control program of BTV in Tunisia.     

冶力关国家地质公园崩滑—碎屑流危险性评价初探

“崩滑—碎屑流”是包含有崩塌、滑坡、泥石流的一类特殊运动形式,具有速度快、滑程远、危险性高等特征,确定其分布区域是进行灾害防治的基础。冶力关国家地质公园地处青藏高原东北缘,区内地质环境条件复杂,中小规模崩滑—碎屑流在园区局部呈密集分布。选取11个相关影响因素,借助ArcGIS与maxEnt进行崩滑—碎屑流的危险性评价。结果表明:崩滑—碎屑流主要发育在石炭纪、二叠纪地层中,基岩表面多裸露、破碎,物源类型以风化岩质为主; 极高危险区与高危险区位于研究区的西北部和南部,占总面积的8.71%; maxEnt训练数据集的AUC值为0.982,测试数据集的AUC值为0.964,灾害点密度随危险性等级的升高而增加,与危险性等级的划分原则相符。该研究结果反映了在高寒气候环境下,极低的地表温度与反复冻融的冻胀力不直接诱发崩滑—碎屑流,但昼夜温差与季节性温差可能加速了岩土体的崩解变形与裂隙扩大,同时maxEnt的高精度评价能够为同类型地质公园的灾害治理及其评价提供借鉴。