Evaluation of two N cycle models for the prediction of N mineralization from grassland soils in the UK

Abstract. The ability of two nitrogen cycle models, of contrasting complexity, to predict N mineralization from a range of grassland soils in the UK, was evaluated. These were NCYCLE, a simple mass balance model of the N cycle in UK grasslands, and CENTURY, a more complex model simulating long-term C, N, P & S dynamics in grassland ecosystems. The models were tested using field measurements of net N mineralization from a range of grassland soils (differing in soil type, history & management practice), obtained over a 2 year period using a soil core incubation technique. This method was considered to measure the total net release of mineral N from the soil organic matter over a specified time, including N which may have been recycled several times. NCYCLE consistently under-estimated mineralization rates at all sites. By contrast, there was some correlation between CENTURY predictions of net N mineralization and field measurements. This may have reflected the different abilities of the two models to simulate N recycling. Neither model, however, was able to predict adequately the effect of cultivation and reseeding on net N mineralization.     

刺槐单株生物量动态研究

本文依据420株刺槐生物量及23株树干解析资料,应用灰色Verhulst模型,对太行山坡地刺槐林单株干、枝、叶、根生物量动态进行了研究,分别建立了预测模型,预测了各器官生长的速生期和停止生长林龄,为实现刺槐林的多目标经营提供决策依据。     

设施园艺电驱移动平台轮毂电机设计及其磁-热耦合性能

针对设施园艺作业场景下电驱移动平台的低速大扭矩牵引作业需求,该研究设计了一种减速内转子轴向磁通轮毂电机,建立电机的电磁有限元模型并分析其电磁和损耗特性。考虑到绕组电阻率受温度变化影响,构建基于热网络法的轮毂电机磁-热耦合改进模型。与台架试验结果相比,基于改进模型获得的转矩预测值较传统模型的精度提高了5.33%,验证了模型的正确性。利用改进模型分析了温度和相电流对电机转矩特性的影响,仿真结果表明,输出转矩随电机温度增加而降低;在0～20 A,电机平均输出转矩与相电流呈线性关系。试验结果表明,轮毂电机功率随转速增加而增大,峰值功率可达4.59 kW,而转矩基本保持恒定;在转速450～900 r/min、转矩300～600 N·m时,电机效率高达93.2%。研究结果可为轴向磁通电机初步设计与多场耦合影响下电机性能分析提供思路。     

基于分形理论的汽油机富氧燃烧模型

阐述了湍流的分形特征,应用分形理论计算了湍流燃烧速度和质量燃烧率,分析了富氧燃烧时未燃混合气密度的计算方法。借助VB语言编制计算程序,进行了计算与实验对比分析。探讨了将分形理论应用到发动机富氧燃烧模型中的可行性。     

Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries

Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models are devised to support the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). This paper sets out pragmatic approaches with which to account for uncertainties in model structure and we review current ways of dealing with this issue in fisheries and other disciplines. All involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be asked to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalize hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of an EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in ways that represent the risks and trade‐offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and a dialogue among fisheries modellers and modellers from other scientific communities will therefore be helpful.     

草地净第一性生产力估算的研究进展

草地净第一性生产力(NPP)是全球变化与陆地生态系统研究的核心内容之一。草地NPP的模拟方法从站点实测法、统计模型发展到了机理性的过程模型,NPP的站点实测数据为统计模型和过程模型模拟结果提供参考。统计模型通过NPP和温度、降雨等气候因子或者直接与遥感获得的植被指数建立统计关系计算NPP;过程模型从机理上对植物的生物生理过程进行模拟并能够对NPP的影响因子进行分析,主要过程包括了光合作用、生长和维持呼吸、蒸散、氮吸收和释放、光合物质分配与分解,和季相变化等。遥感过程模型通过遥感手段获得地表覆盖状况、植被冠层结构变量值(如LAI)、地表反射率、地表辐射温度及土壤水分状况等作为重要参数应用到模型中,改善了模拟结果的时空精度,成为当前草地生产力模型的主要研究方向。最后对遥感监测草地NPP研究中存在的问题进行了分析并提出了展望。     

油管式传感器车辆行驶称重系统算法研究

在分析油管式车辆动态称重系统工作原理和特性的基础上,建立了相应的称重系统称量数学模型;利用非线性最小二乘优化算法获得最小平方误差意义上的静载参数估计,同时根据前后油管信号的相关性实现了车速的精确测量和计算;并通过实车试验,验证该算法是可行的,且达到了较好的精度,为车辆超载检测提供了一种经济有效的手段。     

Distribution and diversity of leaf-cutting ants in Northeastern Argentina: species most associated with forest plantations

Abstract

Leaf-cutting ants (LCA) are considered one of the main herbivores and one of the most destructive pest insects of the Neotropics. Northeastern Argentina harbors the greatest species richness of these ants and in turn comprises the highest surface with forest plantations. Our aim was to establish which species of leaf-cutting ants are most commonly associated with forest plantations by analyzing their geographic distribution using published and unpublished species occurrence data. Also, estimate their potential areas of distribution along a latitudinal gradient that entirely encompasses northeastern Argentina using Ecological Niche Modeling. Only seven of the 20 species recorded were strongly associated with productive systems along the gradient, but only 2–3 species in each region could be considered high-risk species for forest plantations. High-risk species composition shows a turnover between regions. Our models show the potential distribution areas where LCA could become more abundant and dominant, and possibly causing a detrimental effect on the forest plantations in the studied region. We find that ecological niche models are useful tools to assess the environmental suitability of important LCA.     

典型草原建群种长芒草(Stipa bungeana)在中国的潜在分布范围预测及主要影响因子分析

以广泛分布在中国北方典型草原的建群种长芒草为研究对象,利用Maxent模型对长芒草在中国当前及未来气候变化下的潜在分布区进行预测并对主要影响其分布的环境变量进行分析,结果表明,采用受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)对模型精度进行检验所得到的训练数据与测试数据的受试者工作特征曲线面积(areaunder ROC curve,AUC)分别为0.962和0.950,表明模型预测结果可靠,当前中国长芒草高适宜性分布区主要有5个,分别为黄土高原分布区、泰山-沂蒙山分布区、横断山分布区、藏南谷地分布区及天山分布区。在RCP2.6(representative concentration pathways 2.6)和RCP8.5(representative concentration pathways 8.5)两种气候情景模式下预测得到的2070年长芒草最适宜的潜在分布区有逐渐缩小的趋势。Jackknife检验对主导环境变量的筛选结果显示,影响长芒草分布的主要环境变量有地形粗糙度指数(terrain roughness index,tri)、9月降水量(precipitation 09,prec09)、气候湿度指数(climatic moisture index,topowi)、2月最高温度(maximum temperature 02,tmax02)、12月降水量(precipitation 12,prec12)和12月平均温度(average temperature 12,tavg12)。结果可为气候变化背景下中国典型草原的可持续管理提供科学依据。     

利用作物生长模型和时序信号甄别水稻镉胁迫

在自然农田生态系统中,农作物的生长通常受到各类环境胁迫（如重金属胁迫、病虫害、水分、营养）的影响,如何区分重金属胁迫与其他胁迫有待进一步研究。该研究选取了湖南省株洲为试验区,收集2017-2019年的Sentinel-2卫星影像数据,结合野外实测数据,开展水稻重金属镉（Cd）胁迫识别研究。首先,利用作物生长模型World Food Studies（WOFOST）同化时序遥感数据获取每年的叶面积指数（Leaf Area Index,LAI）时间序列曲线;然后运用集合经验模态分解（Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD）方法对LAI时间序列进行多尺度分解,得到不同的时序信号分量（Intrinsic Mode Function,IMF）;最后使用动态时间规整（Dynamic Time Warping,DTW）方法计算受胁迫水稻分解后的时间序列与健康水稻分解后的时间序列之间的DTW距离,即归一化胁迫指数。结果表明：归一化胁迫指数是水稻重金属胁迫敏感的参数,与土壤重金属含量的相关系数为0.851,水稻受到的胁迫程度越高,归一化胁迫指数值越大,反之越低;在试验区中,水稻重度重金属胁迫的分布面积比例相对较低,且主要集中在西部、东北部以及偏东南地区。融合集合经验模态分解和动态时间规整方法能有效地甄别并定量分析水稻重金属胁迫状况,从而为作物重金属污染胁迫监测提供重要参考。