浅谈几种概率分布之间的相互关系

本文简述了几种常用的概率分布之间的相互关系     

线性红利界下带干扰风险模型的破产概率

考虑到保险公司在实际经营中收益所具有的不确定性和分红策略，建立一类具有线性红利界和带随机扰动的双复合Poisson风险模型，利用鞅方法给出模型关于破产概率的一个定理及上界．     

美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。     

Productive and biochemical responses of durum wheat to UV filtration

A UV exclusion experiment was conducted on durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf. var. Claudio) grown in pots. Plants were grown under three different radiative treatments in greenhouses covered with plastic filters: Teflon, transparent to the entire region of natural UV‐visible sunlight (TEF); polyester, transparent above 312 nm (MYL, excluding UVB) and Lee, transparent above 400 nm (LEE, excluding both UVA and UVB). Analyses have been carried out to determine the concentration of photosynthetic pigments in leaves, UV‐absorbing compounds, nitrogen and carbon in leaves, culms and spikes and proteins and gluten in grains. In particular, plants grown under UV exclusion showed a reduction in protein and dry gluten content (consequently without variation in the ratio dry gluten/protein), but at the same time, a significant increase of gluten index, which is a parameter to define the quality of gluten, was observed. The results highlighted the influence played by UV radiation on some biochemical parameters, mainly UV‐absorbing compounds, leaf nitrogen and grain protein characteristics of durum wheat cultivated under Mediterranean conditions. In particular, natural level of UV in the Mediterranean improves the characteristics of durum wheat flour important for pasta production (high dry gluten level), while the UV exclusion could improve characteristics of flour important for bread production (high gluten index).     

An improved method for extraction of sorghum polymeric protein complexes

A method for fractionating sorghum proteins using extraction solvents and techniques designed to obtain polymeric protein structures (especially disulfide linked) was developed. Extraction and separation conditions were optimized in terms of completeness of protein extraction, sample stability, and analytical resolution. After pre-extraction of albumins and globulins, a 3-step sequential procedure involving no reducing agents was applied to ground whole sorghum flour. The three fractions obtained represented proportionally different protein polymer contents and molecular weight distribution as evidenced by comparative size exclusion chromatography. Protein composition also varied among the extracts with differences in kafirin composition and non-kafirin proteins detected in the fractions by RP-HPLC and SDS-PAGE analysis. The ability to quantify and further characterize sorghum polymeric protein complexes will be useful for additional studies linking protein structures with functionality and digestibility and variations for these properties within diverse sorghum germplasm.     

带常利率和相依结构更新风险模型的破产概率

研究了一类具有常利率及相依结构的Sparre Andersen模型, 模型中假设理赔间隔时间决定下一次理赔额的分布情况. 对一般分布情形, 利用推广后的调节系数方程与递归更新技巧, 得到了此模型的最终破产概率上界的估计. 最后以理赔额和理赔间隔时间都服从指数分布的情况下的实例分析来说明该模型的有效性.     

Parsimonious Covering Probability Model for Turbogenerator Vibration Faulty Diagnosis

The turbogenerator vibration faults have the character of variety. Many faults often occur synchronously. This paper introduces a diagnosing model based on parsimonious covering theory and probability. A model for turtogenerator's fault diagnosis is proposed. The availability of this method is proved by two fault diagnosis examples of turbogenerator. The results show that the model proposed can be used for multi_fault diagnosis together. It may make up shortage for some of expert systems and neural networks in some aspect. From the practice,this model has higher reliability and practicability.     

A reservoir operational rule for irrigation in Japan

Operation of a reservoir for irrigation is more complicated and difficult than that for domestic water supply in Japan, owing to the fact that a requirement for irrigation takes various value depending upon effective rainfall on farmland, soil condition, and so on. Therefore, the reservoirs should be operated to correspond with demand, inflow, and unknown droughts occurring in the future. However, the reservoirs have been operated under operators' experiences without formal operational rules, because any effective theories or methods have been neither developed nor used in Japan at present.On operation of the reservoirs, there are two targets — promotion of effective release and restriction of release in preparation for droughts — conflicting with each other. It is useful to set up the operation with Required Storage for Drought Curve (RSDC) Method to achieve reasonable operation harmonizing those two targets. RSDC is composed with Target Line (TL) and Restrictive Release Lines (RRLs). TL is a target storage level to guarantee that storage will never empty until the end of the irrigation period under a certain probability. If actual storage remains above TL, effective release will be promoted. RRLs are storage levels pointing out the basis of restricting release. If actual storage falls below TL, release will be restrained in accordance with RRLs in order to get over uncertain droughts occurring in the future.In this paper, the theory of RSDC is described and the effectiveness of Rule Curve (RC) based on RSDC Method is illustrated by simulation on a single reservoir for irrigation.     

大坝安全风险评估初探

根据风险理论在其它领域的应用实践，以及大坝安全风险管理在国外的应用经验，将大坝安全风险评估的原理、实施步骤等进行了阐述，探讨了大坝风险因素、失事树分析法及事件概率计算方法等诸多关键问题，并通过算例对文中所探讨的问题进行了较为明确的应用与说明。